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Nebraska Football: An Essay On Rivalry

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rivalry (noun): competition or fighting between people, businesses, or organizations who are in the same area and want the same things.

Collins Advanced Learner’s Dictionary

I am 53 years old, and have been a Nebraska football fan since my father took me to Memorial Stadium for the first time in 1976. So, yes, it’s his fault.

In that time, I have watched Nebraska be a dominant national power in college football. I’ve watched it rise to the top of its conference, only to be frustrated at attempting to reach the pinnacle of the sport. I’ve watched it reach that peak, and stand astride the mountaintop for five glorious years. I’ve also watched Nebraska fall back to earth, slowly at first, then faster as the descent steepened.

But in all those decades of watching college football, I never really understood what a rivalry meant. Not until Friday night.

Growing up, Nebraska fans liked to fancy themselves as a rival to Oklahoma. And sure, Nebraska-Oklahoma in the days of the Big 8 produced memorable games and storylines.

But Oklahoma wasn’t ever really Nebraska’s rival. In part, it’s because Oklahoma never really thought of Nebraska as a rival. Sure, things usually came down to beating Nebraska for Oklahoma to win a conference title and play for a national championship.

That was (and is) different, though, than Oklahoma beating Texas. Beating Texas was (and is) everything for Oklahoma. In college football terms, Nebraska was just a side piece for Oklahoma.

I always thought that was the reason why Oklahoma-Nebraska never felt like a rival the way “real” rivalries like Ohio State-Michigan, Cal-Stanford, Ole Miss-Mississippi State, or any other of those rivalries were. But I was wrong, because I didn’t understand the missing piece.

When Nebraska joined the B1G and Iowa took up the Black Friday spot, I remember there being lots of talk about how Nebraska-Iowa could become a natural rivalry. In my hubris at the time, I remember saying that we’d only know if it was a rivalry when Nebraska had a losing record and was still overjoyed to beat Iowa to keep the Hawkeyes from a conference title.

How silly, I thought at the time. How impossible that scenario seemed a mere decade ago.

We know where Nebraska football has been since then. Losing season after losing season. Losing to Iowa again. And again. And again. And after each loss, living with friends, family, neighbors, and co-workers wearing black and gold and reminding us (some more politely than others) of the scoreboard.

When I was younger, I thought winning nine or ten games then losing just before reaching the pinnacle was pain. I thought I understood what that frustration and anger was having to settle for “minor” New Year’s Day bowl games.

That wasn’t pain. Husker Fan. You know what pain is now. You’ve lived it for the last half-decade.

(To be clear, we are talking pain in a sports-fandom context. It’s obviously not real pain, and to confuse it as such is an insult to the truly suffering. But the joy of sports is to be able to invest such passion in something so utterly meaningless. And in that context, Nebraska fans’ pain has been searing).

That’s what made the fourth quarter so gut-wrenching. A 24-point lead going into the fourth quarter should have felt insurmountable. But we’ve seen this movie before. We knew when Rahmir Johnson fumbled that Nebraska had found oh, so many creative ways to lose games and break hearts. At some level, muscle memory kicked in and we were ready for yet another preposterous, mind-boggling, soul-melting ending that would see the Heroes Trophy in Iowa’s hands yet again.

And then it didn’t happen. When Chris Kolarevic intercepted Alex Padilla with 42 seconds left – and when Casey Thompson executed a victory formation snap without fumbling – Nebraska fans finally got to feel what it is to end seven years of misery and frustration against your neighbors who would have gladly smashed their metaphorical boot in your face forever.

I can only speak for myself. I’ve watched Nebraska try to get past Oklahoma for years. I’ve watched Nebraska get oh-so-close to titles for years and come up short. I’ve watched Nebraska finally win national titles.

But I’ve never felt the way I did when Thompson’s knee hit the Kinnick Stadium turf that one last time on Friday.

Because now I finally get it. Rivalries are born out of pain. They’re forged in the crucible of all that defeat and frustration that comes from watching your neighbor experience the joy you ache for, and remind you about it every day for the following year.

The University of Nebraska has played college football since 1890. Nebraska has been nationally famous for football for over half a century. But Nebraska has never truly had a rival, at least not in the modern era of college football. It does now. That’s how a sloppy victory to end a 4-8 season can reduce a grown man to tears.

Thanks, Dad. Without you, I never would have experienced any of this.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: Game-by-Game Predictions of the 2022 Season

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Every year for some time, we at the Double Extra Point have done a game-by-game prediction of the upcoming season. After the last few years, and with all of the changes to the program, guessing the 2022 season seems like an even more daunting task than normal.

But we’d hate to disappoint you. So once more unto the breach we go. We will use the same technique we have before, breaking games into four categories:

BETTER WIN: Expect to win all of the games

SHOULD WIN: Expect to win more than half of the games

MIGHT WIN: Expect to win less than half of the games

WON’T WIN: Expect to win none of the games.

Once all the games are categorized, we’ll add everything up and see what the system tells us. In addition, as always, we will also make a Fearless Forecast of each game (and with all the uncertainty this year, it’s way more Fearless than ever).

NORTHWESTERN (Aug. 27, 11:30a, Dublin, Ireland)

In the most obviously make-or-break season this century for Nebraska football, it is truly unfortunate that the first game of the year is both against a conference foe and played on a different continent. The Purples don’t appear to be a much better team than the one Nebraska drubbed last year in Lincoln. But Northwestern is the kind of team that Nebraska has struggled with under Frost, a team that grinds, doesn’t make mistakes, and waits for the opponent to beat itself.

Under anything close to normal circumstances, Nebraska should be heavily favored. But given that the game is early, and in Ireland, makes a game that Nebraska simply cannot lose all the more challenging.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 38, Northwestern 17

NORTH DAKOTA (Sep. 03, 2:30p, Lincoln, NE)

A home opener against an FCS opponent would have been a far softer start to Nebraska’s season. The F’ing Hawks come off a 5-6 season last year, but run an aggressive blitz-all-the-time defense that could cause a team like Nebraska problems if everything goes right.

(Yes, I know they’re the “Fighting Hawks.” But the college hockey fan in me can’t resist the dig)

Regardless of how the Ireland game goes, Nebraska should have a comfortable return to Memorial Stadium

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 55, North Dakota 17

GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Sep. 10, 6:30p, Lincoln, NE)

A night game for Georgia Southern does seem a little unusual, but these are unusual times in which we life. The Eagles bring their option-style offense to Lincoln to challenge Nebraska, in yet more evidence that the world has been turned on its head.

But this is another game that Nebraska should be able to handle. Let’s just hope they get wise and give us “Thunderstruck” in the third quarter again.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 42, Georgia Southern 24

OKLAHOMA (Sep. 17, 11a, Lincoln, NE)

Last year, the Oklahoma game seemed like such a lost cause that I played in a Marvel Crisis Protocol tournament rather than watch what seemed to be an inevitable embarrassment. Shows what I know, as Nebraska took the Sooners to the fourth quarter with a chance to win, and I got smoked in my tournament.

This year, the game is in Lincoln, which (assuming Nebraska is 3-0) should make for an atmosphere unlike any we’ve seen since Miami came to town. Oklahoma’s got a new coach. Nebraska (in this scenario) comes in as confident as they’ve been. The stars are aligned for Frost to get his signature win.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 28, Oklahoma 24

INDIANA (Oct. 01, 6p, Lincoln, NE)

The Hoosiers looked primed to becoming a consistent force in the B1G East. Then, 2021 happened. Indiana went 2-10, and the momentum built up seemed lost.

Like Nebraska, Indiana will be looking to rebound from a disastrous season. But with the game in Lincoln and the talent differential still in place, it looks to be a tall order for the Hoosiers.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 31, Indiana 20

RUTGERS (Oct. 07, TBA, Piscataway, NJ)

The Scarlet Knights look to be on the rise with Greg Schiano’s return to the Birthplace of College Football. And Rutgers went to one more bowl game last year than Nebraska.

It’s a long trip out to New Jersey to face former Nebraska quarterback Noah Vedral. Rutgers is still likely a year or two away from competing at the top level, but this game has danger written all over it for Nebraska.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Rutgers 24, Nebraska 21

PURDUE (Oct. 15, TBA, West Lafayette, IN)

Nebraska and Purdue really do feel like mirror images of each other, with Boilermaker head coach Jeff Brohm entering the league just two years before Frost, and both promising to bring dynamic offensive changes to the staid B1G.

Purdue’s 2021 season was a glimpse as to what Nebraska’s could have looked like, going 9-4 by getting close wins against Illinois and Michigan State and beating Iowa soundly. While Nebraska has a talent advantage over Purdue, the second road trip in a row feels like a big ask.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Purdue 28, Nebraska 17

ILLINOIS (Oct. 29, TBA, Lincoln, NE)

Nebraska can’t lose to Illinois three times in a row, right? The last two games against the Illini have been embarrassing for Nebraska in different ways. In 2020, Illinois came to Lincoln and manhandled Nebraska. In 2021, Nebraska found seemingly every possible way to give the Week Zero opener away.

Bret Bielema brings a very particular style back to the B1G after his days in Wisconsin. He has yet to put the team he wants together, though, and it’s very hard to see Nebraska dropping a third straight.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 23, Illinois 10

MINNESOTA (Nov. 05, TBA, Lincoln, NE)

P.J. Fleck is in many ways a perfect villain for Nebraska fans. He brings a very slick presentation and puts off a used-car salesman vibe, and his “culture over talent” dig at Nebraska after last year’s game should stick in the craw of Nebraska fans.

Beating the Gophers in Lincoln would be a good sign that this is the year Nebraska gets out of its own way and starts to turn a corner.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 31, Minnesota 21

MICHIGAN (Nov. 12, TBA, Ann Arbor, MI)

Boy, it was close, wasn’t it. Nebraska was on the cusp of a real signature win, leading Michigan until the last three minutes of the game. Beating the Wolverines, a playoff team last year, would have changed the entire perception of Frost’s tenure, and may very well have led to more wins last season.

A trip to Ann Arbor is daunting, though, and Michigan’s talent is better than Nebraska’s. Even with how close the game was last year, it’s asking a lot to get this win.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Michigan 28, Nebraska 20

WISCONSIN (Nov. 19, TBA, Lincoln, NE)

There a few constants in the universe, but one seems to be that Wisconsin has a great offensive line and question marks at quarterback. The same holds true this year, with Graham Mertz being the deciding factor between Wisconsin challenging for a B1G West title or not.

Even with the game in Lincoln, given the history it’s very hard to say that Nebraska will beat Wisconsin until we actually see Nebraska beat Wisconsin.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Wisconsin 24, Nebraska 17

IOWA (Nov. 25, 3p, Iowa City, IA)

OK, Husker Fan, now can we say it’s a rivalry? We’ve seen Keith Duncan walk Iowa off the Memorial Stadium turf with a field goal. We’ve seen Nebraska lead Iowa 21-9 before a blocked punt triggered yet another collapse.

Iowa’s defense might be the best overall unit in the B1G West this year. And Iowa’s offense under Kirk Ferentz has always been like a zombie hoard – slow-moving, predicable, utterly relentless, and waiting for you to make a mistake so it can eat your soul.

(Hey, Hawkeye Fan, that’s a compliment)

This should be like Wisconsin, in that you don’t expect Nebraska to beat Iowa until Nebraska beats Iowa. But it’s time. Call it the Gambler’s Fallacy if you like, but there’s no way Nebraska gives another game away to the Hawkeyes.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 30, Iowa 23

SEASON PREDICTION

OK, so let’s see what our system tells us about Nebraska’s 2022 season

BETTER WIN (expect to win all)2
MIGHT WIN (expect to win less than half)4
SHOULD WIN (expect to win more than half)6
WON’T WIN (expect to win none)0

That puts Nebraska at 7-5 for the season, which should be enough progress to keep Frost in Lincoln. The Fearless Forecast is a little more optimistic, showing Nebraska going 8-4 with a win on Black Friday.

One of the most fascinating – and consequential – season in recent memory is about to dawn for Nebraska Football. Frost once said that if Nebraska does turn a corner, it’ll turn quickly. Given how strong recruiting remains even off a 3-9 season, a proof of concept season for Frost and his new staff could really be a launching point.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: It’s OK That ESPN’s FPI Picks Huskers to Win B1G West

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Jeremy Renner as Clint Barton in “Avengers: Endgame”

Don’t do that. Don’t give me hope.

Clint Barton, Hawkeye/Ronin, “Avengers: Endgame”

Nebraska ended the 2021 season at 3-9, and head coach Scott Frost is 15-27 in his first four seasons. So Nebraska fans could be rightly surprised when ESPN’s Football Power Index tabbed Nebraska as most likely to win the B1G West. Here’s how the projective metric sees the chances for each team to win the division.

Nebraska29.2%
Wisconsin28.9%
Minnesota14.2%
Iowa13.9%
Purdue13.0%
Illinois0.6%
Northwestern0.3%

I know, I know, another “Nebraska winning the offseason” column. And Nebraska fans certainly are wise to guard their hearts given Frost’s 5-20 (!) record in one-score games.

But hear me out. The FPI really does give some objective reasons why you should at least have some cautious optimism for 2022.

First of all, in the preseason the FPI is based largely on previous season data, including returning starters, coaching tenure, and past performance. Likely starting quarterback Casey Thompson’s experience at Texas helps Nebraska’s performance in the metric.

Second, and probably more importantly, Nebraska’s schedule is far different this year than last. In 2021, even at 3-9, the FPI had Nebraska ranked at no. 29 nationally due to how difficult its schedule was. Last year, the FPI ranked Nebraska’s schedule as the eleventh-hardest in the country, and most difficult in the B1G West.

This year, Nebraska’s schedule is no. 50 nationally. Only Illinois (no. 51), Minnesota (no. 52), and Purdue (no. 62) have easier schedules than Nebraska. Iowa (no. 16), Wisconsin (no. 20), and Northwestern (no. 27) have far more difficult schedules this year.

Of course, the FPI is just a predictive metric based on past performances. It’s no guarantee that this will be the year that Nebraska finally gets back to a bowl game and likely saves Frost’s job. And given what they’ve seen, Nebraska fans could be forgiven for concluding that the team is just plain cursed.

Nebraska doesn’t make it any easier by insisting on a week zero game in Ireland against Northwestern, a team that is almost grown in a lab to cause Frost problems. A loss to the Purples could easily wreck the team’s confidence and start a “here we go again” spiral for the 2022 season.

But if Nebraska is able to beat the Purples in Dublin (and get its first winning record since 2019), then at least the table is set for NU to finally, finally, turn that mythical corner.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: Game-By-Game Predictions for the 2021 Season

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With the season about to start, it’s time to go on the record and make our call for how Nebraska’s 2021 season will go. As always, we will use a four-tier system to organize the games and help remove at least a little of the guesswork.

BETTER WINExpected to win every time
SHOULD WINExpected to win more than half of the time
MIGHT WINExpected to win less than half of the time
WON’T WINExpected to lose every time

We will put each game into one of these four categories, and then count up how many expected wins Nebraska should have at the end. Of course, we will also include a Fearless Forecast guess at the final score, because who doesn’t want two bites at the apple when predicting the future?

(Kidding, the Fearless Forecast isn’t the official prediction)

AT ILLINOIS (August 28)

Possibly the most important opening game in Nebraska’s history as a football program. Given how precarious Scott Frost’s position has become, a loss to Illinois (who, by the way, manhandled Nebraska last year in Lincoln) could easily send the 2021 season into a death spiral. But with Illinois bringing in a new coach (even one like Bret Bielema with tons of B1G experience) and changing schemes, Nebraska should have an advantage. We’ll see if the must-win quality of this game works to sharpen Nebraska’s focus, or makes the team crack under pressure.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 31, Illinois 17

FORDHAM (September 04)

Not only are the Rams an FCS team, they aren’t even a particularly good one in that subdivision. If this game is even close coming into the fourth quarter, alarm bells should be ringing.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 51, Fordham 13

BUFFALO (September 11)

This game looked a lot scarier before Lance Leipold took over at Kansas, causing a number of players to enter the transfer portal and putting the program in a rebuilding mode. Even though much of the 6-1 team from last year will be returning, the coaching change and disparity in talent make this a game that Nebraska should be able to win comfortably.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 45, Buffalo 28

AT OKLAHOMA (September 18)

Sure, it was a bad look trying to back out of this game. But in all honesty, I get it. If I’m Frost, given the fragile nature of the program, I want nothing to do with a trip to likely the best team in the country. Blowout losses have ruined seasons before. This is a game that is likely to be all about moral victories.

WON’T WIN

Fearless Forecast: Oklahoma 45, Nebraska 21

AT MICHIGAN STATE (September 25)

At Colorado, Mel Tucker broke Nebraska’s heart twice with gut-wrenching (and head-scratching) wins. Now in charge at Michigan State, Tucker will have his chance to inflict more pain on Frost. Much about this contest will depend on Nebraska’s mindset coming out of Norman. Sparty’s cupboard is pretty bare, but this is a scenario ripe for a team like Oklahoma beating Nebraska twice by inflicting a hangover.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 17, Michigan State 13

NORTHWESTERN (October 02)

Sam McEwon of the Omaha World-Herald had what I thought was the best insight on Northwestern. The Purples really are kind of a bellweather of the rest of the B1G West. If the rest of the conference is down a little, the Purples can win it. That’s been the case the last couple of years, and Northwestern has beaten Nebraska recently simply by playing smarter, sharper football. But if Nebraska has been able to take care of business up to this point, it should have enough momentum to win this game at home

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 21, Northwestern 17

MICHIGAN (October 09)

Much like Nebraska, Jim Harbaugh has significantly underachieved at Michigan. But underachieving for Michigan (other than last year) has been winning eight-to-ten games a year, not what Nebraska has produced. The Wolverines certainly aren’t the powerhouse of That Team Down South, but they are still a more talented team on both sides of the ball.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Michigan 28, Nebraska 20

AT MINNESOTA (October 16)

Goldie has likely the best running back in the league in Mo Ibrahim, and a quarterback in Tanner Morgan that’s been in the program for, what 24 years. It’s also attempting to revive an atrocious defense from last year. Minnesota’s win over Nebraska last year with a COVID-ravaged squad might be Frost’s most unforgivable loss in his Nebraska tenure, and going to Minneapolis to get revenge will be a challenge.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Minnesota 27, Nebraska 24

PURDUE (October 30)

At one point, Jeff Brohm versus Scott Frost looked like it was going to be one of the most fun battles of two sharp-witted offensive coaches. The tide has turned for both Brohm and Frost, and although Purdue has one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in wide receiver David Bell, its overall talent level makes it harder for the Boilermakers to dig out of a hole.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 35, Purdue 24

OHIO STATE (November 06)

Listen, the Buckeyes will be breaking in a new quarterback, and the game is in Lincoln. So if there’s ever a chance Nebraska would be able to …

Yeah, I’m not buying it either. Nebraska has been competitive with Ohio State in the past, taking the Buckeyes to the wire in Columbus when Adrian Martinez was a freshman and hanging around for a half last year. Like with Oklahoma, hope for the best as a Nebraska fan, but be satisfied with moral victories.

WON’T WIN

Fearless Forecast: Ohio State 49, Nebraska 17

AT WISCONSIN (November 20)

Since Nebraska’s entry into the B1G, Sconnie has loomed as a specter over the program. The Badgers are what Nebraska thought it would be coming into the conference, and now is what Nebraska is aspiring to become. The last few games against Wisconsin have been closer than the score would indicate, but turning the tide in Madison this year seems a bridge too far.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Wisconsin 23, Nebraska 17

IOWA (November 26)

Hey, remember this guy?

Yep, the last game played in Memorial Stadium with fans present was Keith Duncan blowing kisses as Iowa walked Nebraska off for its fifth (now sixth) straight Heroes Game win. Husker Fan, if you don’t have that image burned into your soul – if you still think this isn’t a rivalry between Nebraska and Iowa – there’s something wrong with you.

The last three Heroes Games have been razor-thin, with Nebraska at least even with if not outplaying Iowa, but making enough mistakes for a gritty and smart football team to get the best of them.

I am fully aware that this is falling victim to the Gambler’s Fallacy, but Nebraska’s due for one of these to break its way.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 27, Iowa 24

SUMMARY

OK, so let’s tally up how many games we put into each of the four categories:

BETTER WIN2
SHOULD WIN5
MIGHT WIN3
WON’T WIN2

That means Nebraska is expected to win all the Better Win games (2), more than half of the Should Win games (3), less than half of the Might Win games (1), and none of the Won’t Win games. That puts Nebraska at 6-6, which is probably the bare minimum Frost needs to keep the hounds at bay and work with a much more manageable 2022 schedule.

The Fearless Forecast is a little more optimistic, putting Nebraska at 7-5. Given the amount of change in Nebraska’s roster, particularly at the skill positions on offense, forecasting this year’s season is even more challenging than usual.

Now all we need is a football season to prove how right – or wrong – this forecast really is.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: Avoiding Bad Losses Key For Frost’s Turnaround

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Following Nebraska football has never been relaxing. This summer started two of Nebraska’s best offensive players leaving the program, and ended with a new athletic director and an NCAA investigation.

This has made Nebraska in general and Frost in particular the source of yet another round of bad publicity nationally, which is never helpful for a struggling program. And given the struggles Nebraska has gone through in the last few years, it seems like there’s a million problems to fix.

But really, there’s just one. Fix this, and everything else pretty much falls into place.

What’s this silver bullet, you ask? Well (assuming you didn’t read the headline and spoil it), just stop putting up bad losses.

In this context, I’m defining a bad loss as a team that Nebraska – even as currently constituted – should be beating more often than not. Take a walk with me over the last three years at the bad losses Nebraska has piled up – if you dare

2018

Colorado 33, Nebraska 28. The Buffaloes were coming off a dreadful season, and Nebraska gave new head coach Mel Tucker a gift.

Troy 24, Nebraska 19. I don’t care that Adrian Martinez was hurt. I don’t care that Troy is one of the better G5 programs, especially in 2018. Losing to a Sun Belt team at home is always a bad loss.

Purdue 42, Nebraska 28. A team that needed every win to reach a bowl game coming into Lincoln and winning by double digits still is a head-scratcher.

2019

Colorado 34, Nebraska 31. Boy did this game have every chance to be the iconic moment of Frost’s tenure to date, with Nebraska fans painting Folsom Field red. But Nebraska’s chronic inability to close a game out soured the day, and in some ways the season.

Indiana 38, Nebraska 31. Yes, I know the whole Indiana program will be offended to be included in this list. And to be honest, 2021 Indiana wouldn’t count as a bad loss. But 2019 Indiana – especially at home – most certainly did.

Purdue 31, Nebraska 27. Nebraska caught a huge break in playing Purdue without phenom Rondale Moore – and lost anyway.

2020

Illinois 43, Nebraska 21. Possibly the ugliest loss in the Frost era – and that includes a loss to Troy. Nebraska was bullied and intimidated by an Illini squad that fired its coach at season’s end.

Minnesota 24, Nebraska 17. A comically-undermanned Minnesota team (thanks to COVID) rolled into Lincoln and ended up beating a Nebraska squad that had clearly had enough football for the year. If the Illinois loss was Frost’s ugliest, this was his most unforgivable.

That’s … a big list. But let’s just imagine what Nebraska’s program would look like if everything stayed the same – blowout losses, frustration against Iowa and Wisconsin notwithstanding.

2018: 7-5

2019: 8-4

2020: 5-3

That would mean, of course, that Nebraska would have been to a bowl for three straight years too. How much better would you feel about the status of the program if this was Frost’s resume instead of what it currently is?

So really, that’s the hill Nebraska needs to climb right now. Not beating the Buckeyes in Columbus. Not even (shudder) beating Iowa. Just stop losing to Sun Belt teams and teams about to fire coaches and teams that can barely field a full roster.

If Frost can accomplish that – and the fact that it’s a question is quite the indictment of the program – then Nebraska’s program should be on far better footing moving forward.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: Five Questions For Scott Frost In Spring Practice

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We are well and truly into spring practice for Nebraska football ahead of the 2021 season. After a disappointing 3-5 campaign, Nebraska now enters head coach Scott Frost’s fourth season surrounded by uncertainty. With a number of high profile departures on offense and a strong corps of returning defensive starters, anyone who says they know what Nebraska will be like in 2021 is guessing.

But it is year four, and even Frost’s most ardent defenders understand that results on the field need to be seen this year. So what questions will need to be answered as the new season begins?

So, about that offense?

Look, there’s a lot about Frost’s first three years in Lincoln that have been surprising and befuddling. But by far the most surprising is how lost Nebraska’s offense looks. Frost arrived from UCF bringing an innovative spread-based option attack that looked to meld what he learned at Oregon with the principles he learned under Tom Osborne.

The results have not been what anyone expected. In total offense, Nebraska was no. 25 nationally in 2018, which gave fans hope for things to come. But in the last two years, Nebraska has been no. 55 and 65 nationally in total offense – meaning things have gotten comparatively worse in the three years since Frost arrived.

Sure, there’s plenty of explanations. Nebraska’s roster wasn’t where it needed to be, particularly in the trenches. Nebraska’s culture (I know, I’m sick to the teeth of hearing about “culture” too) wasn’t the best. Frost’s offensive system hadn’t been tested against defenses of the caliber and style of the B1G.

But it’s year four, with a four-year starter at quarterback and a well-stocked offensive line. It’s time for Frost’s offense to show proof of concept.

Blackshirt resurgence?

For as much as Nebraska’s offense has been an enigma, Nebraska’s defense has been a surprising star. After being ranked no. 94 nationally in total defense in 2018, Nebraska’s ranking improved to no. 65 in 2019 and no. 50 in 2020.

And for as much turnover as Nebraska’s offensive personnel has seen in the last couple of years, defensive coordinator Erik Chinander sees almost his entire squad return for the 2021 campaign. We’ve seen Nebraska’s offense be – put charitably – a work in progress in the last three years. Is it really possible that Nebraska’s defense can be the glue that holds things together until Frost gets the offense on track?

Can special teams not be a disaster?

What is truly maddening – well, one of the things that are truly maddening – about Frost’s time in Nebraska is how special teams have been a quiet culprit of failure. Think about, even if nothing on offense or defense was any better than it was, how many games Nebraska could have or should have won with even league average special teams play.

2019 Iowa with a kick return touchdown. 2019 Wisconsin with a kick return touchdown. 2019 without a field goal kicker. 2020 Illinois with a fake punt. And these are just the ones that come to mind the quickest. Imagine without these debacles that Nebraska could have won some of those agonizingly-close games it always seemed to be on the wrong side of. And if a couple of those games turn the other way, especially against teams like Iowa or Wisconsin, how much does that change the confidence – and, dare I say, the culture – of the team?

Can Frost reboot the roster?

Yes, a 3-5 record in a pandemic-shortened 2020 season made it hard for even the hardest of die-hard Nebraska fans to stay optimistic, particularly with head-scratching losses to Illinois and Minnesota.

But what really shook Nebraska fans to their collective core was seeing how many players – Frost recruits, not just previous staff guys – who were leaving the program. Some, like running back Dedrick Mills, were a loss but understandable. But when leaders like Luke McCaffrey and Wan’Dale Robinson left, alarm bells started to ring.

Frost has been able to restock the cupboards pretty quickly through the transfer portal, landing running back Markese Stepp from USC and wide receiver Samori Toure from Montana. If Omar Manning, last year’s shining hope as a transfer, is also able to contribute, then Nebraska’s offensive weapons will look very different than they did last year.

That might very well be a good thing given Nebraska’s anemic performance. But it is also a very strange thing given that – other than at quarterback – Nebraska’s skill positions will look almost entirely different next year.

Can Frost keep the vision alive?

One of DC’s most under-rated superheroes is Green Lantern (maybe because this movie got made). Whether it’s Hal Jordan, Jon Stewart, Guy Garder, or any other incarnation, a Green Lantern’s willpower is what he or she uses to keep the galaxy safe. It is the strength of the Lantern’s will, focused through a power ring, that makes Lanterns the scourge of despots throughout the universe.

Much like a Green Lantern, right now Frost is holding Nebraska’s program together through the force of his own will. Even though Frost is 12-20 since 2018, Frost has never waivered in promoting his vision for the program, how he sees this thing turning around and where it will be.

In many ways, Frost is willing Nebraska’s program into existence with his vision. His success at Oregon and UCF certainly help, but ultimately it’s Frost’s force of will and charisma that is keeping Nebraska afloat. It continues to work, as a smart and particularly handsome analyst has observed, based on how Frost continues to out-recruit his results on the field.

But now it’s year four, and willpower can only take you so far. Green Lanterns have to recharge their rings every 24 hours, and at some point Frost is going to have to recharge himself with some success on the field for his willpower-created program to avoid collapse.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: NU ReView, Iowa 26, Nebraska 20

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Stop me if you’ve heard this one.

In a back and forth game that went to the last possession, Iowa made one more play than Nebraska and came away with a win in the Heroes Game, knocking off NU 26-20.

This time, the one play Iowa made was a sack of Adrian Martinez as Nebraska was driving for a winning touchdown, knocking the ball loose for Zach VanValkenburg (how did Wisconsin miss signing this kid?) to scoop up and end the game.

After last week’s debacle, Nebraska has gone from embarrassing back to maddening, so – progress? So in looking back at this game …

THE GOOD

Closing time. Adrian Martinez looks to have taken back his starting job at quarterback decisively, going 18-20 for 174 and no interceptions. Yes, Martinez gave up the game-sealing sack fumble. But let’s be honest, that was far more on his offensive line than on the quarterback.

More importantly, with Martinez Nebraska showed at least some semblance of a downfield passing threat. While certainly nothing that looks like a finished product, at the very least the threat of Martinez throwing downfield seemed to – at times – allow the offense to get in some semblance of a rhythm.

Luke McCaffrey is still a remarkable talent and head coach Scott Frost still refers to him as the future of Nebraska. But from where the two are now, it seems clear that Martinez as the signal-caller gives Nebraska’s offense its best chance to succeed.

Blackshirts are back. Be honest. After what you saw against Illinois, you were expecting an Iowa squad that bullied Minnesota and Penn State to run roughshod.

Instead, the Blackshirts held Iowa’s vaunted rushing attack to 2.9 yards per carry. Had Nebraska been sharper in other aspects of the game, that kind of performance should have been enough to win. At the very least, it showed Nebraska ready to stand toe-to-toe with Iowa physically – at least until Nebraska shoots itself in that toe it’s standing with.

Wan’Dale. I mean, what can you say about a guy who leads the team in rushing (six carries for 42 yards) and receiving (nine receptions for 75 yards)? It does seem like Nebraska has finally figured out ways to get Robinson the ball in ways that don’t involve lining him up at running back and smashing him against a B1G defensive line 15 times a game.

Add to it this quote after the game when asked about Nebraska fans doubting the team’s progress (as reported by Evan Bland of the Omaha World-Herald).

Keep doubting us. We’re going to get over the hump eventually. I know there’s a couple of us who will make sure that happens.

That’s the kind of leader you want in that locker room, Husker Fan. There’s plenty of ink spilled about quarterbacks and centers and coaches. But number 1 on offense might very well be the most important person in the room.

THE BAD

The third phase. For the second year in a row, poor special teams play cost Nebraska a game against Iowa. Last year, it was long kick returns. This year, it was the punt game, between allowing sizable returns and Cam Taylor-Britt’s muffed punt.

It’s as good a metaphor as any for where Nebraska is as a program. Special teams, more than offense and defense, is less about athletic talent and more about execution and attention to detail. Northwestern and Iowa have great special teams units. Nebraska’s has been varying degrees of a tire fire for the last two years.

The center experiment. Early on, Frost made a bold move, taking a highly-regarded tight end prospect and converting him to center. Last year, particularly early in the season, Nebraska struggled with the growing pains as Cameron Jurgens adjusted to his new duties and struggled delivering accurate shotgun snaps.

Against Iowa, Jurgens struggled again – and whatever effect Iowa’s clapping coaches had was about tenth on the list of things Jurgens struggled with. Nebraska had four drives that had snap issues. On three of those, Nebraska failed to score.

In a game of fine margins – and Nebraska is nowhere near good enough to win a game with anything less – that’s the difference between victory and defeat. As good as Jurgens is in other aspects of offensive line play – and he’s very good at a number of other aspects – Nebraska can simply not afford to continue to give away drives, possessions, and points based on inconsistent center snaps.

Field position. 54. 46. 55. 66. 30. 19.

Nebraska outgained Iowa, 338-322. Nebraska gained an average of 5.4 yards per play, compared to Iowa’s 4.3. So how did Iowa end up winning?

In large part, because those six numbers were the length of Iowa’s six scoring drives. That means all but one of those scoring drives started further out than the Iowa 45-yard line. And, back-breakingly, the two scoring drives that put Iowa ahead were only 30 and 19 yards long respectively.

To the credit of Nebraska’s defense, four of those six short scoring drives ended in field goals rather than touchdowns. But between turnovers and poor special teams play (see supra), Nebraska helped Iowa by giving it short fields to work with. And in a game of fine margins, that makes all the difference.

AND THE POVERTY OF LOW EXPECTATIONS

Last week’s loss to Illinois was enough to shake Nebraska fans to their core. It appeared that Nebraska had reverted back to where it was at the end of 2017, when it was simply and embarrassingly bullied and intimidated physically by mid-tier B1G competition. With that taste in your mouth, it was hard not to see Nebraska’s future – short-term and long-term – as anything other than bleak.

Nebraska’s performance against Iowa was, then, somewhat of a reassurance. The Illinois game, not the Iowa game or the Northwestern game, was the aberration. Take heart, Husker Fan, Nebraska is not the team that gets shoved off the field by Illinois. Instead, it’s the team that can outgain and either outplay or at least stand even with the best in the B1G West – and then find ways to lose.

That’s … cold comfort, to be sure. Nebraska’s future does not seem to be as hopeless as it did last week. But – as been repeated here many times – winning begets winning and losing begets losing. Nebraska as a program does not have the maturity to handle success, either in the micro or in the macro.

Bust a big run to get the ball within field goal range to tie the game? Holding penalty.

Get a three-and-out with Iowa inside its 30? Muff the punt and give up another field goal.

Get the ball inside Iowa’s 40 on a drive to win the game? Give up a sack through the A-gap and fumble away a sixth straight game.

Get a win against a team full of five-star recruits? Come out the following week with the worst loss in a decade for the program – and this is a team that lost at home to Troy, fer cryin’ out loud.

So yes, Nebraska has stopped the rot from last week at least. But Nebraska is guaranteed to have its fourth losing regular season in five years. And while a smart and particularly handsome analyst was right in that Nebraska fans should focus on one game at a time, it is hard not to notice just how far NU still is from what it was and what it aspires to be.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: Predicting the Cornhuskers’ 2020 Season

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OK, so now for the third time this year, here’s our official predictions for Nebraska’s 2020 season. As always, we will be using the following technique for season predictions, breaking games down into four categories.

BETTER WINWin all games in the category
SHOULD WINWin more than half the games in the category
MIGHT WINWin less than half the games in the category
WON’T WINWin no games in the category

In addition, as always, we’ll include a Fearless Forecast of the game’s score, primarily to give us a second bite at the apple to get the season record right.

(Kidding, of course, the Fearless Forecast one doesn’t count for the Double Extra Point’s “official” prediction.)

It’s shorter this year, but with everything that’s gone into getting here, it might be sweeter.

OHIO STATE (away, Oct. 24)

In 2018, a freshman Adrian Martinez took Nebraska into the Horseshoe and nearly pulled off a remarkable upset against the juggernaut Buckeyes.

In 2019, Ohio State had a new head coach and Nebraska had the momentum of ESPN Game Day being in Lincoln for the game – and got throttled by one of the best college football teams to play in Memorial Stadium, period.

It’s a weird year, and this is the first game back after a long, long layoff. If there’s gonna be a freaky result to happen, this would be the time.

Having said that, Husker Fan, expect a bad outcome for Nebraska. Just remember that the Buckeyes aren’t the measuring stick for Nebraska’s progress – at least not yet.

WON’T WIN

Fearless Forecast: Ohio State 54, Nebraska 24

WISCONSIN (home, Oct. 31)

OK, we’re cheating a little bit, as this is being written after the first half of the Wisconsin-Illinois game. Quarterback Jack Cohn will be sidelined for the Badgers for some time, but freshman phenom Graham Mertz looks every bit the part to fit in nicely – at least against Illinois’ secondary.

In this pandemic-shortened sort-of season, it’s tempting to think the whole thing could be a mulligan. But Nebraska went toe-to-toe with Wisconsin last year, until a kick return for a touchdown broke the dam open.

Wisconsin without Jonathan Taylor and Quintez Cephas is not the same offense of course. But Wisconsin has been the best team in the B1G West for some time. I’ll believe Nebraska beats Sconnie when I see it, not before.

Besides, if Nebraska wins, we’re stuck having to house this monstrosity of a trophy for a whole year.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Wisconsin 27, Nebraska 23

NORTHWESTERN (away, Nov. 7)

The Purples always give Nebraska fits. With the overgrown grass at Ryan Field to slow down Nebraska’s speed, and with Northwestern’s discipline and toughness, the Purples are laboratory-built to keep games close. Last year, Nebraska got a walk-off (and super shaky) field goal to notch a win.

Look for a better performance for Nebraska this year. This is definitely a canary-in-the-coal-mine game, meaning if Nebraska doesn’t win relatively comfortably, then it bodes ill for the rest of the season.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 28, Northwestern 14

PENN STATE (home, Nov. 14)

The Nittany Lions come to Lincoln with a more talented roster than Nebraska. But they come without uber-talented running back Journey Brown and linebacker Micah Parsons. Omaha World-Herald reporter Sam McKewon is convinced Penn State is a winnable game for Nebraska.

Maybe. But I’ll believe it when I see it with a talent game like this.

WON’T WIN

Fearless Forecast: Penn State 35, Nebraska 21

ILLINOIS (away, Nov. 21)

Look, Illinois went to a bowl last year and Nebraska didn’t. And Illinois is now reaping the benefit of head coach Lovie Smith’s decision to go with a massive youth project a couple of years ago, and now boasts an incredibly veteran squad.

It’s just … not a terribly talented veteran squad. Now, maybe Nebraska’s gauntlet of a schedule start takes it out of the team’s psyche and NU isn’t able to answer the bell. But this game, both because of the talent difference and because of where it is on the schedule, is the only game that goes in this category.

BETTER WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 38, Illinois 17

IOWA (away, Nov. 27)

Well, if it takes a pandemic to get Nebraska-Iowa back to Black Friday …

Yes, it’s great that Nebraska and Iowa is back on Black Friday. And yes, Husker Fan, you need to embrace the rivalry with Iowa. Believe me, they hate you regardless and have for generations, and this conference is a lot more fun if you hate them back.

In the last two years, Iowa has beaten Nebraska on last-second field goals. Iowa this year will be breaking in a new quarterback, although by this time of the season that shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Nebraska outplayed Iowa last year and gave the game away at the end.

Which, fair play to Iowa, was taken advantage of by the Hawkeyes. In 2018, Iowa outplayed Nebraska and let NU back in and nearly steal the contest. Regardless, the two teams are clearly neck-and-neck with each other.

So maybe it’s a little bit of the Gambler’s Fallacy, but Nebraska’s due.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless forecast: Nebraska 27, Iowa 24 (with at least one blown kiss by an NU specialist to the empty stands)

PURDUE (away, Dec. 5)

Nebraska hasn’t beaten Purdue since a last-second touchdown from Tanner Lee (remember that guy?) to Stanley Morgan in 2017 – which was Mike Riley’s last win as Nebraska’s head coach. Purdue is still a well-coached team and will probably have all-everything tailback Rondale Moore at its disposal. Plus, a trip to West Lafayette is not ideal, even without fans.

It’s a dangerous game for Nebraska, but one where NU’s underlying talent advantage should help break the streak.

SHOULD WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 27, Purdue 21

MINNESOTA (home, Dec, 12)

A young, highly-touted coach falls victim to a punishing running attack, suffering a blowout loss on the road.

Yep, that’s what happened in 2018, when P.J. Fleck rowed the boat to Lincoln and Minnesota lost to Nebraska 53-28.

Look, Minnesota’s 2019 campaign was nothing short of remarkable. But why one season vaults Goldy up to the level of Wisconsin and Iowa in the upper echelon of the B1G West still escapes me. Yes, Minnesota should be good this year. But I’m waiting to see if 2019 was the rule or the exception before I will give Minnesota the same due that Sconnie or Iowa get.

MIGHT WIN

Fearless Forecast: Nebraska 28, Minnesota 21

SEASON RECAP

OK, let’s take a look and see what our system tells us about how Nebraska’s season will go

CategoryNumberExpected Wins
Won’t Win20
Might Win31
Should Win22
Better Win11
 2020 Season Projection4-4

A 4-4 mark for Nebraska would reflect steady progress, particularly with noticing a win over one of Wisconsin, Iowa, or Minnesota. It’s not going to be challenging for a division title, but it should be enough proof-of-concept that Scott Frost’s scheme and vision can be successful in the B1G.

The Fearless Forecast is more optimistic, with a 5-3 mark – and, more importantly, notching wins over Iowa and Minnesota. This season would have to be viewed as nothing but a great success, getting Nebraska a good matchup in the Championship Week positional postseason game against the B1G East and a good bowl opponent.

So enjoy this strangest of seasons, Husker Fan. Any games we get in the midst of this pandemic are a blessing, so take them in that spirit.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: Five Takeaways from Nebraska’s 2020 COVID-Influenced Schedule

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On Wednesday, the B1G released its conference-only schedule. After months of finger-crossing and breath-holding, at least now we have an on-paper schedule for Nebraska football in 2020. Here’s Nebraska’s new 2020 schedule

Sept. 5at Rutgers
Sept. 12Illinois
Sept. 19Wisconsin
Sept. 26at Iowa
Oct. 3Minnesota
Oct. 10at Ohio State
Oct. 17BYE
Oct. 24at Northwestern
Oct. 31Penn State
Nov. 7BYE
Nov. 14at Purdue
Nov. 21Michigan State

Here are five quick takeaways from the schedule’s release

1) OMGOMGOMGASCHEDULE!!!!!11!!1!!

There was quite a little buzz earlier in the week that the B1G was going to opt out of the 2020 football season due to safety concerns about the coronavirus pandemic. So to see a schedule – any schedule – is a glimmer of hope that we will see Nebraska take the field in some way, shape, and form in 2020.

2) THE B1G SCHEDULING OFFICE REALLY HATES NEBRASKA

Since Nebraska’s entry into the B1G, it’s been fair to criticize the number of times Nebraska has drawn heavyweights from the other division. Sure, at some level that’s a testament to Nebraska’s television drawing power, but I think many Nebraska fans in the last few years could have done with a little less Ohio State on the schedule.

Before the pandemic, Nebraska was slated to open the season against Purdue, which would have been a nightmare of an opening game. In a season where Nebraska really needed to put a good foot forward, asking NU to open up against a healthy Rondale Moore and face its old defensive coordinator in Bob Diaco was a banana peel on steroids.

Now, Nebraska gets a trip to Piscataway to face Rutgers. Sure, on paper, Nebraska gets to open against the worst team in the B1G. But Nebraska also has to (1) travel all the way to New Jersey in the midst of a pandemic – literally the longest possible trip for a B1G conference game – and (2) has to play a team that currently is undergoing a massive coronavirus outbreak. Currently, 28 k(!) players plus staff of the Scarlet Knights are COVID-positive – and we are at the time of writing one month from playing a game.

3) MURDERERS’ ROW

Nebraska does ease into the schedule somewhat, with Rutgers (travel and COVID outbreak notwithstanding) and Illinois. But after that – parents, cover the eyes of young children.

Wisconsin. At Iowa. Minnesota. At Ohio State.

That’s … daunting. Sure, I know it’s a conference-only slate, so you’re going to get nothing but B1G teams. But, still, that’s quite a gauntlet to run.

4) THE SCHEDULE IS STILL ASPIRATIONAL

Look, it’s a great thing to see the schedule on paper (or, far more likely, on a screen, except for all you olds who still print things out). And the fact that the B1G has put a schedule out does mean that there is going to be at least an attempt to play the games.

But we’re still in the midst of a pandemic raging through the country, one that doesn’t look likely to recede any time soon. The status of the pandemic was described by epidemiologist Michael Oesterholm in Business Insider like this:

“There’s no evidence there’s going to be a decrease in cases, a trough. It’s just going to keep burning hot, kind of like a forest fire looking for human wood to burn.”

Gulp.

So just brace yourself, Husker Fan. Major League Baseball – which has more centralized power, more resources for testing, has smaller rosters, and doesn’t play a collision sport – has been struggling mightily to avoid outbreaks.

We can hope for the best, and that we get all the football the B1G just announced. But there’s a lot that could go wrong, so be prepared for the possibility that the schedule could be changed, shortened – or curtailed altogether – if its required to keep players, coaches, and staff members safe from the pandemic.

5) THIS IS A BONUS YEAR

There’s been some silly talk about Scott Frost being on the hot seat this year. Even in a normal season, Frost’s backing from the administration would keep him safe but all from the most disastrous of outcomes in 2020.

But it’s also true that Frost has gone 9-15 in his first two years in Lincoln. Recruiting is still strong, which indicates a faith in what Frost is building. But at some point it has to show on the field. Pre-pandemic, 2020 really was a critical year to show some signs that Frost’s system would work in Lincoln.

That’s all changed now. With very limited offseason practice, with the restrictions of the pandemic, and with all the chaos and uncertainty, it’s almost impossible to judge Frost’s progress based on 2020’s results.

So, Husker Fan, take what you get this year – whether it’s all ten games or some percentage – as a bonus. It’s somewhat remarkable that we could get any college football to watch, even in empty stadia. Enjoy whatever it is we get this year, and look forward to 2021 where (at least hopefully) we will get an opportunity to fairly judge where Frost’s progress is.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: Nebraska Fans Should Leave the Chris Doyle Story Alone

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Iowa has suspended its strength coach, Chris Doyle, after numerous reports of African-American players were treated poorly because of their race. In announcing the suspension, head coach Kirk Ferentz called it a “defining moment” for Iowa’s football program, and that “[b]lack players have been treated unfairly for far too long.”

Doyle, the highest paid strength coach in college football, has taken to Twitter in his defense.

In a sign that Nebraska fans are truly starting to see Iowa as a rival (as if this wouldn’t seal Iowa’s rival status forever), some Husker fans took glee in twisting the knife about Iowa’s struggles with this story.

It’s understandable, of course. But, Husker Fan, you should know better.

First, and most important, there are some things that are more important than sports, than rivalries. With the aftermath of the national – even global – response to George Floyd’s death at the hands (and knee) of the Minneapolis Police Department, the subject of racial equality should not lowered to grist for the mill of a football rivalry.

There are some lines that shouldn’t be crossed, even in rivalries. Nebraska fans old enough to remember Tom Osborne’s time in the spotlight after his decisions about Lawrence Phillips should know that. And Nebraska fans have gone overboard, as well (Sal is dead, Go Big Red!) and Husker Fan doesn’t need another black eye like that.

In addition, we should keep in mind that this story is still developing. If you follow Rob Howe of HawkeyeNation, you can see that some of the stories being told implicate offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz – and even up to his father the head coach as well.

Husker Fan, you’ve got plenty of ammunition to feed the rivalry fire. The Iowa fanbase’s bizarre infatuation with Nebraska. The empty trophy cabinet. Hanging banners for Liberty Bowl wins and TaxSlayer Bowl appearances. Being satisfied with good instead of great. Ferentz’s massive bonuses for seven-win seasons.

Please, though, keep in perspective that this is about football in the midst of a global pandemic and a world-wide display of righteous anger against racial injustice. Just sit this one out, Husker Fan.

GBR, baby.