cognitive dissonance (cog·ni·tive dis·so·nance)

noun – the state of having inconsistent thoughts, beliefs, or attitudes, especially as relating to behavioral decisions and attitude changes

In Nebraska’s first two games under head coach Scott Frost, NU is averaging outgaining its opponent by 140.5 yards per game.

Nebraska is 0-2 on the season.

After an unprecedented level of excitement surrounding the arrival of a new coach, Nebraska’s self-inflicted wounds have left the team in a dangerous position and the fans puzzled as to how they should respond. There’s still plenty of belief, and plenty of things they’ve seen on the field to inspire belief.

Still, 0-2 is 0-2. Losing still hurts. So in picking up the pieces after Nebraska’s 24-19 loss to Troy …

The Good

More Mo. In Frost’s offense, Nebraska is always going to rotate running backs, so don’t ever expect to see a bellcow back that will get the majority of the carries. Having said that, at least over two games it looks like Nebraska’s best running back may have emerged.

Against Troy, Maurice Washington got 14 carries for 92 yards, and added in three receptions for 14 yards. Washington, a true freshman, showed lateral quickness to evade tacklers, power to run between the tackles, and speed to get away from pursuit.

Taking a Punch. In two games, Nebraska has found itself down 10 and down 17. Now, obviously, that’s not a good thing. But it’s also given Nebraska an opportunity to show that it can handle adversity and respond positively.

And boy, did Nebraska show that. Against Colorado, Nebraska came all the way back to take the lead, surrendering it only after a backbreaking penalty that kept Colorado’s game-winning drive alive. Against Troy, Nebraska was never quite able to get over the hump, but had the ball with an opportunity to drive and win the game.

Sure, it’s a much better scenario if Nebraska isn’t digging itself out of a hole. But particularly for a team coming off a 4-8 season, having the will to fight back from a double-digit deficit is an important demonstration of character.

Nothing. There Is No Third Thing. You guys, Nebraska just lost to Troy. Not Troy, your neighbor with the cute dog he walks on Thursdays. Troy, the Sun Belt team. In two years, Nebraska has lost home games to a Sun Belt team and a MAC team.

Yeah, that’s probably unfair to Troy, a very good team who now has wins over LSU and Nebraska on its resume. Still, this is Nebraska, and that is Troy.

The Bad

Déjà vu All Over Again. Stop me if you’ve heard this one. Nebraska had three turnovers and double-digit penalties, and because of that NU was unable to overcome a slow start and dig out of a ten-plus-point early deficit.

The cliché is that a team always gets better between week one and week two. That might not have been entirely fair for Nebraska given that it had to start a walk-on at quarterback. But still, seeing a repeat of the mistakes that cost Nebraska a win over Colorado had to leave fans wondering how long it will be before NU runs out of feet in which to shoot itself.

Walk-On Woes. Bunch gave this game everything he had. Especially early, he was keeping plays alive rather than throwing the ball away – sometimes to his detriment. And while Bunch certainly has skills that most walk-ons don’t, at the end of the day he’s still a walk-on quarterback brought in to run Mike Riley’s offense.

That’s not to say Bunch couldn’t have been successful against Troy, he certainly could have. But he needed help, and Nebraska’s own errors were too much to ask Bunch to make up.

Close but No Cigar. Once again, this was a game that didn’t require to avoid all of the mistakes it made. Indeed, even with everything else, had Nebraska just cleaned up two pieces of execution – Pickering hitting a makeable field goal and Nebraska cashing in for six after getting a muffed punt at the Troy 8 – NU wins this game.

Once again we saw a team that was 4-8 last year being in position to win a game, but not knowing how to get out of its own way. It’s maddening, of course, and there’s only so many chances Nebraska will get before the season gets away.

And the Fragility of Faith

Football isn’t fair. For so many reasons, fans can see that the football being played by Nebraska is demonstrably better than it was over the last couple of years.

And yet, Nebraska is 0-2, the first time it has started this poorly since 1957. Coming up next for Nebraska is a trip to Michigan. Stranger things have happened, of course, but if Nebraska doesn’t pull off an upset in Ann Arbor it will be facing a scary high-pressure game at home against Purdue.

That’s … a lot to ask a group of college kids, particularly a group that just endured a 4-8 season a year before. Frost has been blunt with his team as to how he expects them to respond (as reported by Sam McKewon of the Omaha World-Herald):

“I just got done telling the team that, when things get tough like this, you have two choices: You fight back and you work even harder or you give up,” Frost said. “I also told them if anybody doesn’t want to stay on board with this ride with us, let me know now and get off. Because I know where this is going. We just haven’t had the results early.”

Frost’s comments might as well have been to the fans. We’re two games into the season, and we’re already starting to see rumblings of discontent.

Of course, that’s not a representative sample. And, it’s Twitter, so it’s best not to take anything seen there all that seriously.

Still, the giddiness of the offseason has given way to the hard work of rebuilding a program. And as a certain smart and particularly handsome analyst told you, the offseason excitement carried with it a danger of unrealistically high expectations – which could come crashing to earth if not met quickly enough.

For those of you despairing, relax. Nebraska will win its share of games this year. The underlying performances we’ve seen have simply been too good for it not to pay off in the win column. And maybe things will click and Nebraska will get a big win in Ann Arbor or (more likely) Madison to calm the waters.

But pack your patience, Husker Fan. You made your decision that Frost was your guy – and by all accounts and metrics, that’s a really good decision. Don’t let a bad start – even potentially a catastrophically bad start – make you reconsider that decision. I’m not big on self-quoting, but I do think this bears repeating.

But this has been a traumatized fanbase, rent asunder by the firing of Frank Solich, abused and taken advantage of by Steve Pederson, willfully divided and antagonized by Bo Pelini, incompetently managed by Shawn Eichorst, and historically failed by Mike Riley. Yeah, I know, it’s only a game. But that’s a lot of trauma (in relative terms) for a fan base to absorb, especially one for whom Nebraska football is such a core part of its identity.

Winning, of course, makes that trauma go away. But continued lack of success – and how much and for what length of time is the great experiment upon which we are all embarking – will bring those demons to the surface.

Abraham Lincoln himself – the namesake of the school’s home town – said that a house divided against itself cannot stand. Possibly the greatest danger to Frost being successful as Nebraska head coach is if that success does not come quickly enough, and a critical mass of that traumatized fanbase ends up giving up on hoping in Frost, turning in with negativity, and destroying itself.

I know, Husker Fan. Losing sucks. You’re sick of hearing it from all of your Hawkeye relatives – believe me, I’ve been there. When Frost was hired, you felt like Nebraska was going to be Nebraska again. And now you’re the butt of the jokes from the national media (although thank heavens for Florida State, amirite?)

Hang in there. Not just because Frost will get Nebraska back to winning big – although I do think he gives Nebraska the best chance to get there since Osborne’s retirement.

You need to hang in there because if the fanbase turns – and we’ve seen it turn just one year ago – then it makes Frost’s job all the harder.

Questioning decisions is fine. Criticizing execution is fine. Being hurt and angry after a loss is more than fine – if you’re not, something’s wrong.

But there’s a difference between asking questions and giving up on the program. The former is expected. The latter – especially in year one of a rebuilding process – is a surrender to the emotions of the moment that both you and the program cannot afford.

In other words, keep the faith.

GBR, baby.

Sometimes football fans don’t like numbers. Arithmetic and statistics, fans think, can’t capture passion and emotion. Cold, hard digits can’t speak to what is happening on a football field.

Then again, 5-7. Says a lot, doesn’t it?

But, of course, there’s more to it. Here are three numbers from last year that tell a lot about what happened in 2015, and what needs to get better.

1299

Sometimes numbers can show us objectively what we know instinctively. In this case, the number 1299 is the number of passing yards Nebraska surrendered in 2016.

No, not overall, that would be pretty good. That’s the number of passing yards Nebraska gave up in the fourth quarter.

Think that’s bad? You’re right. It’s dead last in the country bad. It’s dead last in the country by nearly 100 yards over second-to-last Arizona State bad.

Nebraska’s pass defense overall struggled in 2015, and there’s any number of reasons (which is the polite way to refer to excuses) for those struggles. A change in scheme. A lack of confidence in the scheme. Having the right players in each position in the secondary. A horrifying sense of déjà vu as Nebraska struggled again and again and again to stop long passes at the end of close games.

Regardless of the reasons, getting this number better (and, by definition, it can’t be worse, at least in ranking) in 2016 is critical for Nebraska to improve.

-0.92

Again, sometimes numbers reflect the things you know already. This number is Nebraska’s turnover margin per game, meaning Nebraska averaged losing nearly one turnover more than its opponents per game.

That’s no. 113 nationally, which is really dreadful. And it puts into sharp focus the observation of SB Nation’s Bill Connelly that Nebraska is one mistake per game away from contenting for a B1G West title.

Well, 0.92 is awfully close to 1.00, isn’t it? If Nebraska gets this number to zero – not even getting it positive, just out from being underwater – that alone could put NU in place for a division title.

1.85

This number is closely related to the first number we discussed. Nebraska averaged 1.85 sacks per game, which was no. 78 nationally. That’s almost by definition average, which means you wouldn’t think it was one of the critical data points to watch.

But remember how bad Nebraska’s pass defense was, particularly in the fourth quarter. Sure, the secondary needs to improve on its own. But what’s a secondary’s best friend? A great pass rush.

So if Nebraska is able to manufacture more sacks, and more quarterback pressure, then the secondary won’t have nearly as much pressure on it – and should improve as a result.

All statistics from cfbstats.com.

Now that spring practice is (yeah, I know, quite a distance) behind us, let’s take a step back and take stock of where Nebraska is heading into the 2016 season. Coming off of a 6-7 campaign, Nebraska fans will be wanting reasons for optimism heading into a new season, so the storylines coming out of this spring will have to tide things over until the autumn.

Armstrong is the man

The arrival of heralded phenom quarterback Patrick O’Brien led some Nebraska fans to wonder if senior-to-be quarterback Tommy Armstrong would have legitimate competition in 2016. While Armstrong’s ability to make a big play has won games for Nebraska during his career, his consistent struggles with accuracy and turnovers lend some (like this smart and particularly handsome analyst) to question whether NU can win trophies with Armstrong at the helm.

But at the Spring Game, we didn’t see O’Brien on the field until the second half. And his performance (6-10 for 59 yards and a game-sealing interception) didn’t exactly light the world on fire.

Sure, it’s the Spring Game, also known as the last in a series of practices. Very little weight should be given to just about anything seen therein.

Still, it’s hard not to get past the fact that Ryker Fyfe and A.J. Bush saw the field before O’Brien did. That suggests O’Brien has a ways to go to see the field in 2016, and could be in line for a redshirt season.

That can change, of course. With another phenom quarterback in Tristan Gebbia committing to Nebraska for 2017 and the signing of Tulane transfer Tanner Lee, Nebraska head coach Mike Riley might well think it worth the risk to give O’Brien playing time next season if he can earn his way up the depth chart.

But if O’Brien wasn’t playing with the first team at the Spring Game, it’s hard to think that he will make enough of a move in the fall to unseat a three-year starter like Armstrong. So it looks a near lock that Armstrong will be leading Nebraska’s offense in 2016.

Questions on the lines and at I-back

Both of Nebraska’s lines will look very different in 2016 than the previous season. The early departures of Maliek Collins and Vincent Valentine left a gaping hole in the middle of Nebraska’s defensive line that needs filling. Nebraska’s offensive line will likely not have a single starter in the same position from 2015.

That has the potential to be a good thing, particularly on the offensive line where players like David Knevel, Tanner Farmer, and DJ Foster are likely to get a chance to shine. But it’s a frightening scenario to have no returning experience up front on offense.

At I-back, there looks to be an impressive array of talent, but little clarity in terms of how it will be used. Senior back Terrell Newby may have missed his chance to seize the reins of a starting job last year, and now looks to be fending off challenges from sophomore Devine Ozigbo and junior Adam Taylor.

How those backs will be used — and whether Nebraska will truly take a committee approach at I-back in 2016 — is an open question after this spring.

Strength on the edges

If the interior of Nebraska’s offense and defense is a question, the exterior of the offense is not. Nebraska’s wide receiver corps looks to be the strongest unit on the team — and maybe the strongest set of receivers in school history.

Jordan Westerkamp should lead the unit with his remarkable hands and his chemistry with Armstrong. Brandon Reilly is a dangerous deep threat, as is the oft-injured Alonzo Moore. Stanley Morgan was a revelation in his freshman season last year, and should force his way on to the field. Tight end Cethan Carter began coming on at the end of 2015 as a matchup nightmare. And with a year to recover and other weapons around him, De’Mornay Pierson-El may be Nebraska’s secret weapon.

Of course, that presents a challenge for offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf, as (see above) the almost-certain starting quarterback for Nebraska in 2016 has a career completion percentage of 54 percent.

Waiting for 2017

In many ways, Nebraska’s 2016 campaign may be another season of transition. With Armstrong as the starting quarterback, Langsdorf will almost certainly tailor his offensive philosophy to suit Armstrong’s strengths as a runner and minimize his weaknesses regarding his accuracy as a passer. Some form of spread-option attack will be grafted in to the offensive scheme Riley and Langsdorf prefer.

Starting in 2017, though, the offense should look far more like what we have seen from Riley at Oregon State. If you look at the quarterbacks Nebraska has lined up for 2017 and beyond (like O’Brien, Lee, and Gebbia) you can see into the future for what NU’s offense will look like — short, accurate passing from the pocket as a key element of the attack.

In addition, Nebraska’s overall talent level in 2017 may start to look more like a team ready to contend for conference honors. Currently — with only eight commits — Nebraska sits at no. 21 nationally for its 2017 class, according to 247Sports. If Nebraska is able to use its success with players like Keyshawn Johnson Jr. and Gebbia to lure other talented players (like five-star cornerback Darnay Holmes, from the same Calabasas High School as Johnson and Gebbia), then NU’s 2017 could end up in the top-15 or even top-10.

And that’s critical for Nebraska to return to national prominence. As observed by many, including Dave Bartoo’s CFBMatrix, success in recruiting has a direct correlation to success on the field. Of course, signing class after class of top-10 talent is no guarantee of on-field victories (see, e.g., Texas).

But it’s a heck of a lot more likely to win on the field if you have the athletes to at least compete with top-tier teams in your conference. Since the Callahan era, Nebraska’s recruiting has lagged in the twenties to thirties nationally — and Nebraska has struggled in that time to compete against top-tier competition.

If things continue as they have this off-season, 2017 may be the year Nebraska turns the corner in recruiting and puts talent on the field that gives NU a legitimate shot to compete for conference and national titles in the coming years.

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2015 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

The concert hall at the Sydney Opera House holds 2,700 people. This blog was viewed about 13,000 times in 2015. If it were a concert at Sydney Opera House, it would take about 5 sold-out performances for that many people to see it.

Click here to see the complete report.

It’s not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand.

– John Cleese as Brian Stimpson, Clockwise

Once again, Nebraska loses a heartbreaker, beaten by Wisconsin 23-21 on a 45-yard field goal by Rafael Gaglione with 0:04 seconds remaining in the game. To its credit, Nebraska fought hard, answering the bell time and time again. But as NFL great Bill Parcells said, you are what your record says you are, and right now that’s 2-4 overall and 0-2 in B1G play. So for Nebraska against Wisconsin …

The Good

Retro Nebraska. With 6:17 left in the game, Nebraska faced a third-and-one at its own 45, down 20-14. The crown in Memorial Stadium was flat, feeling like they had seen this movie before.

(Spoiler alert: They had, in fact, seen the movie before, and knew how it ended)

Nebraska then motioned into an I formation, and quarterback Tommy Armstrong gave the ball to fullback Andy Janovich. He broke tackles and steamed his way to the end zone, breathing life and hope into the Sea of Red.

And as we’ve learned this season, it’s the hope that gets you.

Receiver’s Grabs. Two catches for Nebraska were worth noting. At the end of the first half, Armstrong took a shot deep for Alonzo Moore. Moore was one-on-one with the Wisconsin cornerback, and had to make the touchdown grab around the defender. He made the play, even with an interference call, and put Nebraska in front as the half expired.

But to set up that touchdown, Nebraska needed to convert a third-and-four from the Nebraska 44. Armstrong floated a pass to Stanley Morgan, who made a one-handed grab to convert the first down and put Nebraska in position to score before the end of the half.

Defensive Standouts. Yes, there were Blackshirts that played well against Wisconsin. Chris Weber, a walk-on linebacker pressed into service due to injury, had seven tackles and a quarterback hurry. More importantly, though, Weber’s presence helped stifle Wisconsin’s rushing attack.

Cornerback Joshua Kalu had nine tackles and four pass breakups, and spent most of the game in single coverage against Wisconsin’s Alex Erickson. And linebacker Marcus Newby had four tackles, one tackle for loss, and four pass breakups playing a role somewhere between a linebacker and a free safety.

Dodging a Bullet. Yeah, I know it’s a fourth good. But Nebraska and Wisconsin play for the ridiculous, anodyne and focus-group-created Freedom Trophy. So by winning the game, that means Bucky has to take this monstrosity home with him.

The Bad

Getting Beat Twice. Against Illinois last week, Nebraska had a chance to salt the game away, but Armstrong threw an incomplete pass, stopping the clock and giving the Illini an opportunity for a game-winning drive. Head coach Mike Riley took tremendous heat for that play call in the week to follow.

Fast forward one week, when Nebraska had a 21-20 lead with 1:24 remaining. Wisconsin had three time outs, and Nebraska ran three straight plays with Imani Cross into the teeth of, basically, the entire Wisconsin defense. The Badgers ended up getting the ball back at their own 30 with 1:03 left needing only a field goal to win.

So, here’s the thing. One of those three plays – probably second down – was crying out for a play-action pass to draw in the Wisconsin defenders bunched in the middle, letting Armstrong booting out with a run-pass option, likely either open or with single coverage.

One first down for Nebraska wins the game. There was almost no chance to get that first down running straight into the teeth of Wisconsin’s defense with a bruiser like Cross. And given Nebraska’s history this season (and how long the defense had been on the field), it was both unfair and unreasonable to ask the defense to make a stop.

But given what happened on third-and-seven against Illinois, it’s hard not to think Riley didn’t play it safe wanting to avoid a repeat of what happened in Champaign. Unfortunately for Nebraska, playing it safe was exactly the wrong decision in this scenario.

Yellow Rain. A smart and particularly handsome analyst pointed out this would be a regular feature of this column, and it was a huge issue against Wisconsin. Nebraska had nine penalties for 89 yards, right on track with its performance this season. Yes some of the penalties were … soft, and 15 of those yards were on an unsportsmanlike conduct call against Mike Riley.

But, still, penalty yardage makes a difference. And when you consider the razor-thin margin between 6-0 and 2-4 for Nebraska this year, those penalty yards could be the difference.

Lack of Pass Rush. Yeah, Joel Stave had 322 yards of passing against Nebraska, and there’s plenty of questions to ask about the secondary. But part of the reason for Stave’s success was an almost total absence of a pass rush. The absence of defensive end Freedom Akinmoladun was keenly felt, as Ross Dzuris and Jack Gangwish simply lack the ability to apply pressure from the edge.

And the Tragic Inevitability

In calling a game for Monday Night Football, Tony Kornheiser referred to a comeback by the New England Patriots as “tragic inevitability” as the Ravens surrendered a lead to Tom Brady.

At this point, that’s what it feels like for Nebraska. Be honest, Husker Fan, once Wisconsin took the ball with a minute left, you thought something like this:

There’s plenty to like about how Nebraska kept playing hard and fighting back. But these are college kids who have put their blood, sweat, and tears for months into this team … and have gotten a 2-4 start out of it. At some point, there very well could be an F-it moment for players on this team. Unless something good happens soon – and a trip to Minneapolis to face a feisty Gophers squad is not ideal to find that – that F-it moment could be on the horizon.

Wisconsin @ Nebraska photo gallery

THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman

– Thomas Paine, The Crisis

Stop me if you’ve heard this one. On Saturday, Nebraska gave up a lead on a final drive and lost to Illinois, 14-13. The loss drops Nebraska to 2-3 on the season, and 0-1 in conference play. There’s plenty to break down, especially that third down play. But at this point, there’s a bigger issue to address.

Nebraska is now 2-3, and here’s what the schedule looks like for the next three games:

Wisconsin

At Minnesota

Northwestern

A 2-3 record is bad, no doubt. But if Nebraska can’t right the ship next week against Wisconsin, its staring at 2-4. And it’s not like Nebraska’s last couple of games against Wisconsin went well.

Then Nebraska has to travel to Minneapolis to face the Gophers. Dropping that game could put Nebraska at 2-5. And Minnesota has a two-game winning streak over Nebraska.

So if Nebraska’s going to stop the rot, it has to happen this week. We can talk all we want about schemes or personnel issues, But ultimately, that’s not the biggest issue for Nebraska.

At this point, it’s mentality. Nebraska has lost three heartbreakers, games it has played well enough to win. Nebraska is just a few plays away from being 5-0.

But it isn’t. And it’s also a Freedom Akinmoladun sack against Southern Mississippi from a Hail Mary that could have dropped Nebraska to 1-4, too.

Tommy Armstrong has been an offensive juggernaut, Coming into the Illinois game, he was no 10 nationally in total offense after the first four games (according to cfbstats.com). But he’s also the guy who made the critical error to cost Nebraska games against Miami and Illinois.

(And yes, there’s no doubt that the third-down throw was an Armstrong improv. Nebraska head coach Mike Riley said as much in the post-game press conference. And Armstrong wears Brett Favre’s no. 4 for a reason).

So what happens now? How much more heartbreak can a group of college kids endure? At what point does the team lose faith in the new guy and go into the tank?

That’s what we’re going to find out next week when the Badgers arrive in Lincoln. And Memorial Stadium might well be the worst place in the world for Nebraska. Already reeling from heartbreak after heartbreak (after heartbreak) – and, more importantly, not getting the rewards for the hard work they’ve been putting in all off-season – it’s not at all hard to imagine the Nebraska crowd venting its frustration and anger if NU struggles against the Badgers.

So now the Wisconsin game takes on an air of desperation for Nebraska’s season – and perhaps for Riley’s career in Lincoln.

A Mini-ReView

The Good – Front Four Pressure: For most of the game, Nebraska was able to get pressure on Illinois quarterback Wes Lunt with its front four. Moving defensive end Maliek Collins outside at times to help the pass rush was encouraging.

The Bad – The Last Drive: OK, I know, duh. But we learned that Nebraska’s secondary struggles weren’t about scheme nearly as much as personnel. Lunt hit Malik Turner for a 50-yard pass to advance the ball to Nebraska’s seven. That play was against a cover two, meaning that Nebraska’s defensive coordinator Mark Banker left two safeties back to defend against the pass. And it was against Nate Gerry, Nebraska’s most experienced defender.

And The Cock-Eyed Optimist: Yeah, it looks bad. But Nebraska’s next three opponents look to set up very well for NU. Wisconsin just lost at home to Nebraska, 10-6, and has struggled to move the ball. Minnesota has been taking on water all season after giving TCU a game in week one. And Northwestern, while impressive this far, still struggles to move the ball consistently.

A smart and particularly handsome analyst said that Nebraska’s defense is particularly well suited to face off against teams like these. If Riley can keep the team believing it can win – and keep the fans from storming the field with torches and pitchforks – then the next three games are poised for a Nebraska recovery.