Author: thedoubleextrapoint

Nebraska Football: OF COURSE Nebraska Should Stay in the B1G!

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It’s … been a rough year for everyone. The coronavirus pandemic has taken its toll on us all, and about things far more important than football.

Having said that, this is a blog about football. And specifically for Nebraska football, this has been a rough year. New B1G commissioner Kevin Warren earned himself no friends with being the public face of cancelling, then un-cancelling, the B1G football season.

On at least two separate occasions this year, Nebraska has born the brunt of national scorn for the (apparent) crime of wanting to play as many football games as possible. The second act of that particular drama, after Wisconsin cancelled its game against Nebraska after a COVID-19 outbreak, seemed to push many Nebraska fans to the breaking point.

Nebraska, apparently, had an agreement in place for a replacement game against the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga. According to Nebraska, UTC’s testing protocols were at least as stringent as those of the B1G, so playing the game in that context would not increase any risk of exposure.

The B1G said no, and elements of the Nebraska fanbase – who already blamed the conference in general and Warren in particular for everything from negative national attention to having no fans in the stands – took their online outrage to the next level.

Now throughout the Nebraska fanbase – and even with some prominent local media members – the wisdom of Nebraska’s continued membership in the B1G has been called into question. I know it’s been a long year, and surviving this pandemic has been tough on everyone but … that’s crazy talk.

Let’s get down to brass tacks. According to USA Today here and here, the per-team conference payouts for each of the Power 5 conference schools looks like this.

ConferencePer-School Distribution (approximate)
B1G$55.6 million
SEC$45.3 million
Big 12$38.2 – $42 million
ACC$27.6 – $34 million
Pac 12$32.2 million

*pausing to let the obligatory “it’s not all about money” folks get that out of their system*

That’s a huge different in terms of per-team payouts. And before your eyes glaze over, stop for a second and think about the power that money brings. Power to hire the best coaches – like, I don’t know, some guy like Fred Hoiberg to help turn around a moribund men’s basketball program. Power to build facilities that can rival anyone in the nation and help a school like Nebraska that has to compete nationally for the best players.

And that’s just talking about the athletic side of things. I know you don’t come here for a discussion of academia, but Nebraska’s membership in the B1G is a game-changing difference for the university’s academic mission. Nebraska’s B1G membership allows the university to attract the most sought-after professors, access to some of the most lucrative grant opportunities, and the prestige to put its work before the world’s stage.

Getting back to the football field, though, the B1G provides for Nebraska something it’s never truly had – rivalries.

I know, Husker Fan, I know. Nebraska-Oklahoma holds a special place in your heart, and rightfully so. The Game of the Century will always hold a place in the lore of college football.

But, I have some hard news for you. Oklahoma was never really all that into you. Oklahoma’s rival was, is, and always will be Texas. We saw that as the Big 8 morphed into the Big 12 and Nebraska got kicked to the curb by Oklahoma.

After that? Colorado was kind of a spicy fling, but the Buffaloes bolted for the west coast at first opportunity. Missouri was just starting to feel like it had possibilities, before the SEC came calling for the Tigers (and, by the way, the B1G said an emphatic no). Kansas State? Come on, Husker Fan, are you seriously holding a torch for a game in Manhattan, Kansas?

Now, Nebraska’s got Iowa. Whether you know it or not, Husker Fan, Iowa’s had a thing for you for a very long time. As much as the black-and-gold faithful won’t admit it out loud (especially after winning five straight), there’s a special place in their hearts every time they see their scarlet-and-cream neighbors with their five national titles fall on their collective faces.

Nebraska fans are juuuuuuust starting to return the favor to their noisy neighbors. And if you, as a Nebraska fan, can’t find some hate in your heart after this, I can’t help you.

The point being, though, is that Nebraska’s home in the B1G gives the space NU to have a true, honest-to-heaven, 12-month-a-year rival, something it has never had before. That’s a good thing, as it gives Nebraska fans a chance to feel those unchecked emotions that can only come from vanquishing a truly hated rival.

Wait until Nebraska knocks off Iowa, Husker Fan, and see how you feel. Trust me, once that happens, you’ll get it.

Besides, what’s the option if Nebraska were to leave the B1G? Go back to the Big 12?

Texas is still, last I checked, Texas. True, Texas might not quite be back, but that’s not going to change how Texas as an administration operates. And as you might recall, Husker Fan, that was pretty intolerable when Nebraska kept losing votes to Texas in those halcyon Big 12 days y’all are apparently pining for.

Omaha World-Herald columnist Tom Shatel has been pretty open in his willingness to consider Nebraska leaving the B1G. Back in August, here’s his justification (if you can call if that) for such a move.

There’s money in the Big 12, too — especially one that would add Nebraska and Arkansas or UCF.

BWAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH!!!

*deep, cleansing breath*

BWAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH!!!

Yes, clearly the difference between the money brought in by the B1G and the Big 12 is the addition of those ratings giants … Arkansas or UCF.

So let me get this straight. Y’all want to go to a conference which is bringing in less per school now – and will go down once the pot has to be split twelve ways instead of ten – and have to deal with Texas and Oklahoma rolling over Nebraska again in terms of influence within the conference. You want to give up the power and stability that comes with being in the financially strongest conference. You want to give up the academic prestige and fundraising clout that the universities throughout Nebraska’s system now enjoy.

Because … the current commissioner is bad at his job?

Yes, the B1G botched handling this pandemic. I suspect that some of the struggle comes from the two powerhouses of the conference, Ohio State and Michigan, at loggerheads about how much risk to accept in playing a football season. And when Mom and Dad are fighting like that, it’s understandable how disorganized and incomprehensible the conference’s response has been.

There’s also, of course, a heaping dose of B1G arrogance that’s backfired. I’m firmly convinced that the decision in early August to cancel the season – when a decision did not have to be made – was done in large part because the B1G thought that the other conferences would follow suit. I mean, it is a conference that chose “Legends” and “Leaders” as division names.

When that failed, and with the two powers of the conference pulling in opposite directions, it’s not hard to understand why the conference response has been such a mess.

That doesn’t make it any easier to swallow, of course. But take a deep breath, Husker Fan.

This year was always going to be hard, regardless. Don’t let these short-term frustrations make you lose sight of the long term. Nebraska has a stable home in the most powerful conference in college sports. And you get a for-reals rivalry in the bargain.

Complain about the conference all you want, if it makes you feel better – and those are pretty sweet shirts. But Nebraska’s right where it needs to be.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: Don’t Let Anyone Fool You, Schedule Difficulty Matters

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So, last time I was able to get a piece posted here, we were reviewing the B1G’s newly-released conference-only schedule, postulating on how it affected Nebraska, and looking forward to at least some level of college football. As the song from “Hamilton” goes …

Since then, Nebraska has been on the vanguard of pushing the B1G to reconsider the decision that commissioner Kevin Warren said “would not be revisited.” In the national conversation, Nebraska has taken a bit of a heel turn, summarized most likely by ESPN’s Desmond Howard referring to NU as “the loudest five-win team in the country.”

But all that noise apparently paid off, as the B1G announced it would return for an nine-game schedule starting on October 24. On Saturday, the schedule was announced (with no little amount of snark from the FOX hosts about how Nebraska should be careful what it asks for). So here is Nebraska’s 3.0 version of its 2020 football schedule

10/24at Ohio State
10/31Wisconsin
11/07at Northwestern
11/14Penn State
11/21Illinois
11/28at Iowa
12/05at Purdue
12/12Minnesota
12/19B1G East opponent

When the schedule was released, Nebraska Twitter exploded (which is, in all honesty, kind of what Twitter is for) about how front-loaded the schedule was. Many in the local media pushed back on that perspective.

From a coach’s perspective and a player’s perspective, I get it. Complaining about the difficulty of a schedule is, at its heart, finding a reason to fail. And for any competitor, even acknowledging that increased level of difficulty undercuts the confidence necessary to perform at your best and maximize your ability to perform.

But those of us who just watch the game – whose mindset does not directly influence the outcome – in this case have the benefit of clearer sight.

Let’s start with an agreement that the teams on Nebraska’s schedule would have been set one way or the other. Yes, Nebraska lost Rutgers instead of Penn State as a crossover game, which increases the schedule’s degree of difficulty. But that was the most likely scenario simply for the distances involved in the travel.

Even so, it’s silly not to acknowledge that the order in which the games are put influence how difficult the schedule would be. To demonstrate this, let’s just walk through a few thought experiments.

First, would it make Nebraska more or less likely to have a successful season if it was able to start well and gain some momentum as opposed to taking a loss or two early?

We know the answer after seeing head coach Scott Frost’s first two years in Lincoln. In 2018, Nebraska missed its season opener against Akron, then lost a heartbreaker to Colorado. In 2019, after a less-than-convincing win against South Alabama, Nebraska again lost a gut-wrencher to Colorado. I would argue that those early losses affected the psyche of those teams – which, don’t forget, were coming off two losing seasons in three years – and made getting over the hump in close games later in the season harder.

So if stacking wins early makes it more likely to win later, then Nebraska’s 3.0 2020 schedule definitely will make it harder for Nebraska. Having three of its first games against top ten teams (Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State) makes it incredibly challenging for Nebraska to get early momentum in the season.

Here’s the first experiment then. Which of these possible schedules would give Nebraska the best chance to get off to a good start – which we have established would help succeed later in the season?

Schedule 1: at Illinois, at Purdue, Michigan, at Northwestern

Schedule 2: at Ohio State, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Penn State

If you said Schedule 1, quite honestly, you’re lying. Clearly Schedule 1 would give Nebraska a far better chance at getting off to a good start.

Schedule 2 is, of course, Nebraska’s. Schedule 1? Well, that’s Wisconsin’s (minus going to Nebraska in week 2).

Second, would it make Nebraska more or less likely to beat some of the most challenging games on its schedule if they were spread out, giving Nebraska time to recover, or having them all put together?

(Cue all of the B1G cliches about being such a physical league and leaving bruises week after week)

So, let’s try the same thought experiment. The games I would deem “challenging” I’ve put in ALL CAPS.

Schedule 1: Illinois, Purdue, MICHIGAN, Northwestern, MINNESOTA, Indiana, IOWA

Schedule 2: OHIO STATE, WISCONSIN, Northwestern, PENN STATE, Illinois, IOWA, Purdue, MINNESOTA

This one isn’t quite as start, but you still see that gauntlet at the start of the season with Schedule 2, with three “challenging” games in four weeks. There’s nothing like that in Schedule 1. So, clearly, Schedule 1 is a more navigable schedule because it doesn’t have all those “challenging” games back-to-back.

And yes, Schedule 2 is Nebraska, and Schedule 1 is Wisconsin minus Nebraska in week 2. Even if you count Nebraska as a “challenging” game, Sconnie still doesn’t have any back-to-back.

The point of these thought experiments is not to allege a conspiracy theory (although if one was inclined to think the B1G head honchos wanted Nebraska to pipe down it’s hard to imagine how it would do much different with the schedule.)

The point is, quite simply, to show that schedules matter. I know Football Tough Guys would respond with a variant of “it’s a tough game, shut up and play,” usually accompanied by some form of grunt and beard scratch.

That’s what Nebraska is going to do, of course – and the silver lining to this is the opportunity NU has to get even more attention and credit if its able to pull off an upset.

But to pretend that a schedule doesn’t make a team’s path to success easier and harder in the service of – I don’t know, some mythical notion of toughness – is just being willfully blind.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: NU ReView, Nebraska 45, Bethune-Cookman 9

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DSC07875

Nebraska’s replacement for the Akron game finally arrived, with FCS Bethune-Cookman coming to Lincoln. Head coach Scott Frost got what he wanted out of the game with a comfortable 45-9 win and an opportunity to play a lot of players that otherwise wouldn’t see the field. So in reviewing Nebraska’s win over the Wildcats …

THE GOOD

Taking Care of Business. Nebraska’s contest against Bethune-Cookman could not have gone more to script in terms of how Frost and co. would have wanted to see things unfold. Nebraska’s offense looked lethal, scoring with ease on every possession save one, and getting a special teams touchdown to boot.

Defensively, Nebraska was gouged a few times, but ultimately kept Bethune-Cookman out of the end zone until literally the last play of the game.

Party Like It’s 2012. Nebraska fans could be forgiven, watching the Bethune-Cookman game, in feeling like it had been a long time since they had seen something this comfortable. Nebraska led 38-3 at the half. The last time Nebraska had that big of a halftime lead?

September 22, 2012 – more than six years ago – when Nebraska held a 45-0 lead en route to a 73-7 dismantling of Idaho State.

Unscathed. At least at the time of this writing, there is no news of any significant injuries coming out of the Bethune-Cookman game. As a newly-confident Nebraska squad heads to Columbus for a litmus test on the program’s progress – and facing an Ohio State team coming off an ugly loss with a bye week to prepare – NU will need all the depth it can get.

THE BAD

The Fifth Possession. Yeah, you’re kinda scraping when you have to point at a specific possession for something bad. But that possession ended with a false start, two straight sacks, then Adrian Martinez throwing an ugly interception to Tydarius Peters.

If nothing else, that possession will give Nebraska’s coaches plenty to work on during the week’s practice. Well, that, and the prospect of playing Ohio State at the Horseshoe.

The Third Type of Liar. Nebraska only outgained Bethune-Cookman in total yardage 468-355. Bethune-Cookman held a significant advantage in time of possession, holding the ball for 35:23 compared to Nebraska’s 24:37.

If you just looked at those two stats, you’d think the game was relatively close, and maybe the Wildcats were able to pull some magic out.

The game … was not relatively close. Total yardage can frequently be a misleading statistic that, while useful at times, should always be read in context with the rest of the game. Just look at what Nebraska’s gaudy total yardage stats has gotten it in the first six games of the year.

As for time of possession, with Frost’s offensive scheme you can comfortably start ignoring that statistic. Here’s the time Nebraska’s scoring drives took against Bethune-Cookman: 2:23, 2:19, 2:26, 2:44, 2:36, 1:37. If Nebraska’s offense is working, it’s not on the field very long.

If you want stats that mean something, read Bill Connelly’s S&P+ work at SB Nation, which will help you use numbers to really get a better understanding of what’s happening on the football field.

A Bad Beat. For those of you who … invested in Nebraska as a 41.5 point favorite, the end of the game was less comfortable than the rest of us. At 45-3, Nebraska’s 42-point lead would still let you cash your ticket by the slimmest of margins.

And then Bethune-Cookman scored the garbage-y-est of garbage-time touchdowns, so much so that the officials didn’t even make the Wildcats kick the extra point.

They didn’t need to. With that last-gasp score, the Wildcats ended up with one of the latest and most frustrating back-door covers in recent history.

AND THE HOPE BEFORE THE STORM

Before the season started, Nebraska fans had basically written off the Ohio State game as unwinnable. If you had to schedule a wedding during football season, Ohio State week was the time to do it. Ohio Stadium has been a horror show for Nebraska in its last visits, and little about the 2018 version seemed likely to change that narrative.

But here we are. Nebraska is now 2-6. Ohio State is 7-1, but coming off a 29-point loss to Purdue. Could it be that the mighty Buckeyes are vulnerable, and Frost’s offensive wizardry can work some magic in Columbus?

There’s plenty arguing against that narrative. Urban Meyer, say what you will about his morality or his memory, is one of the great coaching minds of our generation, and he’s had a week to prepare his team. From a talent standpoint, Ohio State looks far more like Michigan, and we know what happened the last time Nebraska took the field against a squad like that. Heck, Frost hasn’t even won a road game as Nebraska head coach.

Still, Nebraska fans are going into Ohio State week with, if not confidence, at least curiosity. It’s games like this – and the ugly losses that followed – that were a massive factor in Bo Pelini losing his job. Frost, in year one, has at least got Nebraska fans thinking that something might be possible in Columbus.

GBR, baby.

Extra Points 01/09/18 – collecting Cornhusker news and writing around the web

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Former Husker lineman Aaron Taylor to be inducted into College Football Hall of Fame

Nebraska football goes after Virginia defensive back commit

Nebraska recruiting: What to expect from Huskers’ early enrollees

After disappointing end to senior year, former Husker kicker Drew Brown looks forward to NFL

 

Nebraska Football: NU ReView, Northern Illinois 21, Nebraska 17

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DSC06192

Nebraska lost to Northern Illinois 21-17 at home, losing to a group-of-five school for the first time since a 2004 loss to Southern Mississippi. The Blackshirts played well after struggling in the first two games, but two first-half pick-six interceptions were the tale of the game. So, in looking back at the contest …

The Good

Blackshirts are Back: Hey, remember when worrying about Nebraska’s defense was a thing? The Blackshirts held Northern Illinois to 213 total yards and one offensive touchdown. Really, except for one long pass right after Nebraska took the lead – which was the prime opportunity for a letdown in the game – Nebraska’s defense answered the bell.

Fourth Down is the New Third Down: This year, Nebraska is 4-for-6 on fourth down conversions. That’s an amazing statistic, not only because of the number of attempts (averaging two per game), but in how often Nebraska has been successful. A combination of bravery and execution in the ultimate do-or-die situation.

The Conference Goals Are Still in Place: Yes, that was ugly, but Nebraska’s goal of winning the B1G West and playing in the conference championship game are …

Don’t. Just, don’t. While the “goals in place” thing might be true, it’s also ignoring the gigantic tire fire burning in the living room. (Don’t ask how the tires got in the living room. It’s a metaphor, go with it.)

The Bad

Tanner from Tulane: I hate to say I told you so, but … a smart and particularly handsome analyst said this about junior transfer quarterback Tanner Lee:

So I understand the desire for some stability. But it’s a recurring theme that amidst all of the uncertainly, the one thing most observers are not worried about for Nebraska is the level of quarterback play under transfer Tanner Lee. Check it out here, and here, and here.

That’s … kinda nuts. I know he was the offensive MVP of the scout team last year, I know he’s looked great in fall practice, and I know that he’s ruggedly handsome.

But he hasn’t played any real football in almost two years. And when he did, at Tulane, he had a career completion percentage of only 53.6 percent and a 1.095 touchdown-to-interception ratio, throwing 23 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

  Completion % TD INT TD/INT Ratio
Arkansas State 59.3 2 0 —
Oregon 46.3 3 4 —
Northern Illinois 53.2 0 3 —
2017 Total 52.5 5 7 0.714
Tulane Total 53.6 23 21 1.095

Lee’s performance at Nebraska looks a heck of a lot like … Lee’s performance at Tulane. And that level of performance is simply not good enough for Nebraska’s offense to be successful.

Sure, Lee’s offensive line didn’t give him much help. And sure, Lee had some critical drops – if Jack Stoll hauls in his fourth-quarter target, Nebraska likely wins this game anyway.

But that’s all part of the package for a quarterback. Lee had three interceptions against Northern Illinois, and was fortunate not to have at least three more given some of the decisions he made.

The season isn’t over, and it would be a colossal shock (absent injury) if Lee isn’t under center against Rutgers next week. Lee won the starting job because he’s the best quarterback on Nebraska’s roster in 2017.

Unless his performance improves significantly, in a hurry, that’s not going to be good enough for Nebraska to salvage even a winning season this year.

Third Down is Still Third Down: Yeah, it’s fun to see Nebraska put it all on the line and convert on fourth down. But coming into this game Nebraska was no. 103 nationally in third down conversions at 32.14 percent. Against Northern Illinois, Nebraska was 3-for-13, or 23 percent, so that national ranking is likely to go down.

That’s not good enough, not even close to good enough. A combination of poor offensive line play and shaky quarterback performance is a huge contribution to Nebraska’s poor showing on third downs this year. It’s likely more symptom than cause, but this is a number to watch if Nebraska is going to get the wheels back on the train this season.

A Confidence Game: Boy, the first drive of the game against Northern Illinois didn’t look like the game would end as it did. Nebraska was in an offensive rhythm, biting off big chunks on the ground and through the air. It looked like Nebraska’s decision to take the ball at the start of the game was going to pay dividends, allowing NU to get an early lead and put some confidence back in the squad.

Then Shawun Lurry made a break on Lee’s bubble screen and went 87 yards for a score. Nebraska looked shell-shocked on offense, never really getting back into rhythm until the third quarter. It wasn’t entirely different from how Nebraska’s defense looked against Oregon last week, after Lee’s interception allowed the Ducks to take an early 14-point lead.

Don’t forget these are still college kids, learning a new system on both offense and defense. In both of Nebraska’s last two games, NU has had to dig itself out of double-digit holes. Nebraska has only held a lead for one minute and 22 seconds in the last two games. That’s going to weigh on the psyche of a team, and might be the biggest hurdle Nebraska faces going forward.

And the Calling of the Question

After Nebraska’s 6-7 campaign in 2015, Riley likely lost a year of patience from the Nebraska fans. Coming into 2017, this dope thought that Riley might be a year away from the hot seat.

A loss to Northern Illinois changes that. Northern Illinois is no. 119 nationally in terms of five-year recruiting rankings, one of the best ways to measure talent. The Huskies are easily the least talented team Nebraska will face in 2017 – the next least talented team is Illinois at no. 72.

With the talent disparity, at home, Nebraska has no business losing to Northern Illinois. Ever. This is the type of stain that doesn’t come off of a coaching resume. This is the type of loss that goes in the first paragraph of a coaching tenure’s obituary.

This is the type of loss that puts a coach on the hot seat. Don’t believe me? Ask Nebraska’s athletic director, Shawn Eichorst.

What Eichorst said after the Northern Illinois loss wasn’t really all that important. It was the fact that Eichorst came out and said something at all. Eichorst is famously averse to media appearances, and would only have come out so soon after the game – giving Riley the “dreaded vote of confidence” – if he thought it was necessary.

Eichorst was right. As it stands now, Nebraska will need to upset Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Penn State to have a shot at an 8-4 season. And that’s assuming Nebraska wins all of other remaining games on its schedule, including on the road against a suddenly-scary Purdue, at home against perennial nemesis Northwestern, on the road against Minnesota, and at home against an Iowa squad with a two-game winning streak.

Nebraska is 1-2. Nebraska is one play away from being 0-3. And the long knives are already at least being reached for, by no less than Omaha World-Herald columnist Tom Shatel. Scott Frost is still turning heads with his work as Central Florida’s head coach. So is Trev Alberts as UNO’s athletic director, by the way.

That doesn’t mean the season is over, of course. There’s nine games left. In 2015, a reeling 3-6 Nebraska squad raised up and beat no. 6 Michigan State in Lincoln. If Nebraska can find itself and get some confidence in the next two weeks, it’s not impossible to imagine Nebraska pulling off an upset when the Badgers come to Lincoln. Heck, Nebraska has outscored its opponents 31-0 in the third quarter this year. Put that performance together for another three quarters, and anything can happen.

The evidence suggest that result is unlikely. At this point, 7-5 feels like the best-case scenario, with losses to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State. A 6-6 finish – or worse – probably seems more likely.

There’s time to fix things, no doubt about it. But three games in to Riley’s third season, this is what the beginning of the end looks like.

GBR, baby.

Nebraska Football: A Theory on the Cornhuskers’ Collapse Last Season

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fyfe

Sherman, set the WayBack Machine for October 29, 2016. Nebraska just missed exorcising its demons in Camp Randall with a thrilling 23-17 overtime loss to Wisconsin, but showed to the world that it could stand toe-to-toe and compete on a national stage. That near-miss loss meant that Nebraska was still 7-1 on the season, including an impressive (although, if you believe in win percentage as a metric, unlikely) victory over Oregon. It was encouraging enough for this dope to even end his ReView of the Wisconsin game with defiance, saying “bring on the Buckeyes.”

Yeah, that didn’t exactly work out for Nebraska. After Ohio State’s 62-3 evisceration of NU, the season took on water in a hurry. Nebraska pulled out a gritty 24-17 win over Minnesota, and a comfortable 28-7 victory over an outmanned Maryland, but those wins proved to be paper over the cracks.

On the day after Thanksgiving, Nebraska was dominated 40-10 by Iowa (!), surrendering 264 rushing yards (!!) and 404 total yards (!!!) to the Hawkeyes. Nebraska drew Tennessee in the Music City Bowl, and lost 38-24 to the Volunteers in a game that was nowhere near as close as the score might have indicated.

So Nebraska’s 2016 campaign ended at 9-4, a decided improvement over the 6-7 mark from a season prior. But in Nebraska’s three losses in its final five games last year, it was outscored 140-37, and outgained by total yards in those contests by more than a two-to-one margin, 1519 to 739.

What happened? How did a season that saw Nebraska at 7-0 and ranked no. 7 nationally end with such a resounding thud?

Obviously, a big part of it was that Nebraska’s quality of opposition improved dramatically towards the end of the season. Oregon looked like a great matchup on paper in 2016, but ended the season at 4-8 and a fired head coach. Ohio State, Tennessee, and (gritting teeth) Iowa were dramatically tougher opponents than Nebraska’s early-season victims, so it should not have been surprising that Nebraska had more difficulty at the end of 2016.

Additionally, Nebraska’s 7-0 mark coming into Wisconsin was clearly, in retrospect, inflated. Given the game flow, Nebraska was pretty fortunate to beat what turned out to be a very flawed (if talented) Oregon squad in Lincoln. Other than the Ducks, Nebraska’s best win in that 7-0 stretch was … Northwestern? Wyoming?

Those factors can explain some of what happened at the end of 2016. But it wasn’t just that Nebraska struggled at the end of last year. Let’s be honest. Nebraska collapsed at the end of 2016. Nebraska capitulated to the strongest teams at the end of its schedule. (And yes, that’s officially throwing shade at Minnesota.)

So what else explains the magnitude of Nebraska’s late-season collapse. There’s a whole bunch of factors, of course. And I will state from the outset that this is just rank speculation from a total outsider, observing from a distance. But I would venture an educated guess that there were two significant factors that contributed to last year’s swoon.

The first is the effect of injuries to quarterback Tommy Armstrong. Of course, his terrifying injury against Ohio State threw Ryker Fyfe into duty in Columbus. But Armstrong had been walking wounded for quite some time before his Ohio State scare, and a combination of injuries against Minnesota a week later knocked him out of the following game against Maryland.

Armstrong tried to soldier through his injuries against Iowa, and it showed. He ran six times for 13 yards and was 13-35 throwing for 125 against the Hawkeye defense. Armstrong was a shell of his former self on Black Friday, and everyone – including Iowa’s defense – could clearly see it.

Gamer that he is, Armstrong fought hard to get back on the field for the Music City Bowl, but his injuries simply wouldn’t allow it. Fyfe started against the Volunteers and was … well, he had eight rushes for minus-27 yards, and was 17-36 for 243 yards passing with two touchdowns.

It’s fair to say, then, that Armstrong’s injury was a significant factor in Nebraska’s late-season struggle. But it’s more than that. Fyfe was Nebraska’s best option as Armstrong’s backup. God bless the kid from Grand Island, he’s a good athlete, worked very hard, and did the best he possibly could in the situation in which he found himself.

But it was clear to any observer from the outset that Fyfe was never good enough for Nebraska to be competitive against a sturdy opponent. And, more importantly, it had to have been clear to the Nebraska squad that going into games against Iowa and (especially) Tennessee, having a quarterback as limited as Fyfe gave NU almost no chance to be competitive.

Outside of perhaps a goaltender in hockey, there is no position in sports more important than the quarterback in football. If there was one fatal flaw in former head coach Bo Pelini’s time in Lincoln (well, apart from the obvious), it was Pelini’s inability to get his signal-caller right.

Between Armstrong and Taylor Martinez, Pelini’s quarterbacks were dynamic and dual-threat, but ultimately limited due to their inability to pass effectively and avoid turnovers put a ceiling on how effective Nebraska’s offense could be. But maybe even more damning of an indictment might be how poor the depth at quarterback has been in Lincoln.

And that lack of depth ultimately undid Nebraska last season. A loss to Ohio State in Columbus was, in retrospect, not a surprising result. And asking Fyfe to come in for an injured Armstrong, with Nebraska already down 21 points, would have made anything other than a blowout surprising.

So really we’re down to two big losses – Iowa (!) and Tennessee – that defined Nebraska’s 2016 season. Why did Nebraska capitulate so badly in those games?

Let’s take as a given that both teams are very good, and worthy winners. But it’s hard not to see Nebraska’s collapse, in part, as a subconscious response by a team knowing that their quarterback gave them no chance to be successful on that day.

Against Iowa, Armstrong gamely tried to play, but it was clear from the start that his injury was going to rob him of his effective rushing of the ball. And without that threat of a run, Armstrong simply was not good enough as a quarterback to be effective.

Against Tennessee, Nebraska was asking Fyfe to go up against an SEC defense (including a future NFL first-round draft pick in defensive end Derek Barnett). Fyfe, as he always did, but up his best effort. But his best effort ended up being a sub-50 percent completion rate. Remarkably, Nebraska remained within a couple of scores throughout the game, but the outcome was never in doubt.

And it’s hard not to think that part of the reason Nebraska couldn’t hold up against Tennessee was because, at some level, the team knew that they couldn’t be successful with Fyfe under center.

Now, my caveats again. I wasn’t in that locker room, and I don’t know anyone that was. But I’ve been an observer of the game for a long time, and I know what my expectations were going into the Music City Bowl. I know what my expectations were against Iowa once it was clear that Armstrong couldn’t run. And if I knew that, it’s hard to imagine that the team didn’t at some level think that too.

And keep in mind, this was a team that had expended a lot of emotional energy that year. The sudden death of punter Sam Foltz just before the season started shocked and saddened the team, and the fan base overall. Throughout the year, the team remembered Foltz before each game, and accepted the support of opposing teams who wanted to sympathize in Foltz’s death as well.

Which, of course, was exactly the right thing to do. It was inspiring to see those young men rally around each other in their grief and memory of a remarkable student athlete taken too soon. I defy you not to tear up when you watch the “missing man” delay of game penalty tribute Nebraska took against Fresno State to honor Foltz’ loss.

But that kind of emotional energy, week after week during a hard campaign, had to take a toll on a group of young men. Add it that toll the disappointment of an overtime loss against Wisconsin, and then the unspoken futility of sub-optimal quarterback play, and you have a recipe for a collapse.

Is that what happened? I don’t know. Is it a plausible explanation, at least as a contributing factor, to how Nebraska could surrender 40 points to Iowa and 521 total yards to Tennessee at the end of a particularly grueling 2016 campaign?

I think it could have been. And if that’s the case, it provides a reason to be hopeful for a 2017 season that is otherwise chock full of questions.

Nebraska Football: Four Takeaways from the End of Spring Practice

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Sure, anyone can give you an instant breakdown of Nebraska’s Spring Game, feeding you the hot takes and farming for your sweet, sweet clicks. But we at the Double Extra Point know you come here for reasoned and thoughtful analysis, the kind that takes some time to generate.

OK, fine, I’ve been really busy, and a little bit lazy. But there is some value of taking a breath and looking back at where Nebraska football is after head coach Mike Riley’s third spring in charge. Here’s four big takeways as we prepare to go through the long dark summer of baseball, cookouts, and hot-weather tomfoolery until football starts back up in August.

It’s Not Year One for Riley, But it Kinda Is

Riley isn’t going to get much breathing room even with all the changes coming to Lincoln this autumn. He’s going into year three of his tenure, after a 5-7 season in his first year and going 2-3 to end his second year with an aggregate score of 140-37. Riley isn’t on the hot seat for 2017, but he may very well be a year away from it.

And yet, there very little about 2017 that will look like 2016 in terms of the team taking the field. New defensive coordinator Bob Diaco will be deploying his much-discussed 3-4 defense, and we won’t learn anything about the Blackshirts’ transition until Arkansas State comes to town. And Nebraska’s signal-callers are going to look different than … well, just about any time in NU’s recent history.

Shortly after the Spring Game, Riley said junior transfer Tanner Lee would be Nebraska’s starter going into fall camp (according to Sam McKewon of the Omaha World-Herald). Behind Lee will be redshirt freshman Patrick O’Brien and sure-to-redshirt freshman Tristan Gebbia. All three were impressive in spring practice, and showed well at the Spring Game.

But it was Lee who had the highlight of the contest, with a 30-yard touchdown pass to JD Spielman that brought a collective gasp to the Memorial Stadium crowd.

That’s … a throw Nebraska fans aren’t used to seeing their quarterback execute. So Lee being the first name on the sheet isn’t a surprise. But Nebraska’s quarterback depth now is as good as it’s been in quite some time – maybe since Tommie Frazier and Brook Berringer. Given what’s happened to Nebraska in the last few years when its starter went down, it’s hard not to see this season as something very different in terms of NU’s offense.

But with a quarterback like Lee (or O’Brien, or Gebbia) as opposed to the run-first guys like Taylor Martinez or Tommy Armstrong, and with the shift in defensive scheme, Nebraska is going to look very different in 2017.

Diaco the Poker Player

Anyone who thought they were going to get a glimpse of what Nebraska’s 3-4 defensive attack was going to look like in 2017 were sorely mistaken. At no point in the Spring Game did Nebraska come out in a three-man front, playing lots of nickel, and generally being super plain and boring with its defensive alignment.

That was by design. Diaco, and Riley, made a conscious decision to keep the Blackshirts’ new look under wraps to avoid giving opponents an off-season worth of film to study.

At one level, that’s kind of silly. A 3-4 defense isn’t exactly revolutionary, and any competent offensive gameplan will at some level know what’s coming and how to defend against it.

Having said that, though, at least some of the benefit of a 3-4 scheme is deception, with an offense not knowing from down to down where the fourth pass rusher is coming from even without a blitz. And given that Nebraska will be breaking in a new defensive structure (as well as a new offensive structure), any tiny little advantage might be helpful.

Recruiting as the Known

OK, sure, there’s no such thing as a “known” in recruiting, especially before national signing day. But still, what’s happened with Nebraska’s recruiting in the last few weeks is nothing short of remarkable.

Nebraska is currently sitting at no. 11 nationally (according to 247 Sports) with its 2018 recruiting class. Led by Brendan Radley Hiles, the sixth-best prospect Nebraska has signed since 2000 (!), the class of eight commits to date should be filling Husker hearts with hope about the talent coming to Lincoln. After watching the NFL Draft, and seeing Nebraska break its streak of 54 years with multiple players selected, it’s hard not to come to the cold realization that NU’s talent pool had thinned in recent years.

It appears that trend is reversing. But still, a note of caution should be heard. While Nebraska is rated no. 11 nationally, that’s still only good for fifth in the B1G. One spot behind Minnesota. So, take those numbers for what they’re worth.

Better Team, Worse Record?

Nebraska fans could be forgiven for being a little confused about what to think about their team. In 2015, the team wasn’t nearly as bad as the 6-7 record would have suggested, suffering one inexplicable loss after another. In 2016, the team likely wasn’t as good as the 9-3 record would have suggested, as evidenced by lopsided losses to Ohio State, Tennessee, and (shudder) Iowa.

Nebraska’s 2017 squad shapes up to be very different, and perhaps more dangerous, than Riley’s two previous teams. But the schedule it faces also looks to be more challenging than the previous two years.

Consider Nebraska’s road trips to Oregon, Minnesota (you know, the team with the no. 10 nationally ranked recruiting class) and Penn State, with home contests against Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State, and Iowa.

The three most difficult contests are likely at Oregon, Ohio State, and at Penn State. If Nebraska drops those three games – not at all an unreasonable expectation given NU breaking in a new offense and a new defense – then it will have to run the table just to match 2016’s achievement. That would include wins over Wisconsin (which hasn’t lost to Nebraska since 2012), Northwestern (which perennially plays Nebraska tough) and Iowa (which hasn’t lost to Nebraska since 2014).

It’s very likely Nebraska’s 2017 team will be better on offense, and perhaps on defense, than the 2016 squad. It’s also very likely that the 2017 record won’t reflect that improvement.

Photos of the 2017 Spring Game can be found here.

Nebraska Football: Five Things To Watch For at the Red-White Spring Game

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On Saturday, Nebraska will have its fifteenth and final spring practice play the annual Red-White Spring Game before a crowd likely to be north of 80,000 in Memorial Stadium. As year three of Mike Riley’s tenure as Nebraska’s head coach begins, fans will be wondering what to expect after last year’s record was an improvement over the prior season, but saw some ugly losses to Ohio State, Tennessee, and (shudder) Iowa.

So what should a smart fan (and a DXP reader, but of course that’s redundant) be looking for from Saturday’s glorified final practice? Well …

Can The Quarterbacks Complete Passes?

I know, that sounds mean. But here’s Nebraska’s completion percentage from 2009-2016:

2009 57.7
2010 57.8
2011 56.0
2012 62.0
2013 57.7
2014 52.9
2015 55.9
2016 50.3

The last three years, of course, were with Tommy Armstrong as starting quarterback. And those numbers are simply not good enough for Nebraska to expect success on the field.

This year, with Armstrong’s departure, the quarterback battle looks to be between redshirt junior transfer Tanner Lee and redshirt freshman Patrick O’Brien. Lee played two years at Tulane, and many fans hope his experience will help him win the job and lead Nebraska’s offense out of the doldrums.

His career stats? A 53.6 completion percentage and a 23/21 TD/INT ratio. Sure, that was at Tulane, not Nebraska. But still, those aren’t numbers that inspire confidence.

With the threat of a quarterback run game now gone, Nebraska will need significantly more efficient play from the passing game to be effective on offense. Whether the starter is Lee or O’Brien, we will at least get a glimpse of what to expect from them on Saturday.

Can The Offensive Line Hold Up?

Nebraska’s passing game was a mess last year, and much of that comes from the signal-callers and their limitations throwing the ball. But part of the problem has been an offensive line that has struggled to perform at a high level. Injuries were a part of the problem last season, of course. But it’s rare to finish a season without some attrition on the offensive line from injury.

Going into Saturday, we do not yet have a good grasp on who will be starting up front on offense. We also don’t know exactly how the Red and White squads will be divided, so it may very well be that a full first-team offensive line won’t be on the field at the same time on Saturday.

But we will get at least some look at how this year’s version of the Pipeline will look come September.

Can The Running Game Get Established?

Yes, it’s fair to say that this question will hinge in large part on the answer to the last question about the offensive line. But it’s also fair to say that Nebraska has a whole bunch of I-Backs to pick from, none of whom have yet to show the ability to take over a game. For the three primary returning backs, here’s their yards per carry from 2016.

Mikale Wilbon 5.93 (15 carries)
Devine Ozigbo 4.25 (97 carries)
Tre Bryant 4.00 (43 carries)

Last year, Nebraska had the no. 73 ranked rushing attack nationally – and that was with Armstrong’s running ability factored in as a part of the offense. This year’s offense will likely not feature a quarterback run game, but will (hopefully, for Nebraska’s sake) have a more efficient passing attack. On Saturday, we will get at least a glimpse of how that effects Nebraska’s ability to run the ball.

Will The New 3-4 Defensive Scheme Take Time To Learn?

62-3. 40-10. 38-24.

Those were the scores of Nebraska’s last three losses (to Ohio State, (shudder) Iowa, and Tennessee), and were a significant factor in why Bob Diaco and not Mark Banker is Nebraska’s defensive coordinator in 2017.  But it’s not like Nebraska was dreadful on defense overall last year. NU was no. 30 nationally in total defense, and no. 33 in scoring defense.

So, on the good side, that means Diaco has a good platform on which to build. But, on the concerning side, it also means that a substantial shift in defensive scheme (from 4-3 to 3-4) runs the risk of upsetting the proverbial apple cart.

Diaco said (according to Rich Kaipust of the Omaha World-Herald) that the Spring Game will be more of a “dress rehearsal” than an audition, and that “[i]f you’re interested in filming the spring game to figure out what we’re going to do on defense, you’re going to waste a lot of film and footage.”

OK, sure, a smart reader like you might expect that Diaco wouldn’t come out with a quote like “hey, Nebraska opponents, make sure to check out the Spring Game because we’re totally going to show you all our sneaky trick defensive plays.” So of course what will be on the field this Saturday will be a pretty sanitized version of the Blackshirts compared to this September.

(And, at the risk of being snarky, it would be helpful to let Diaco know that most recording is now done digitally instead of using something like this. Although, in fairness, the latter is far cooler.)

Can Nebraska Generate Pressure on the Quarterback?

While we should be able to learn something about Nebraska’s new-look Blackshirts on Saturday, it is fair to say that we might know less about Nebraska’s ability to pressure the quarterback in 2017. Even if the offensive line is a question mark (see supra), it is unlikely that Nebraska will be calling any elaborate blitzing or pressure schemes.

Still, one of the advantages of a 3-4 front is to permit even four-man pressure from multiple locations, potentially causing confusion to opposing offenses (as discussed by Kaipust of the Omaha World-Herald). And Nebraska could use the help on that front, checking in at no. 65 nationally in sacks and no. 85 in tackles for loss last year.

So even without the blitzes or other extra schemes, getting a look at how a 3-4 front attacks an opposing offense should give fans at least a taste of what’s to come in 2017.

All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.

Nebraska Football: Husker Fan, Chill Out About The ESPN FPI Prediction

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This week, ESPN released its Football Power Index (FPI), an analytical tool that simulates thousands of college football matchups to predict future outcomes. The FPI results for the 2017 season are out and they are … not optimistic for Nebraska.

The FPI thinks that Nebraska will win somewhere between 5.5 and 6.5 games in 2017, making it no. 58 in the nation. In looking at the schedule next year, that’s a lower rating than Ohio State (no. 1), Penn State (no. 8), Oregon (no. 21), Northwestern (no. 29), Iowa (no. 39), and Minnesota (no. 55).

Reactions on Husker message boards were, of course, calm, measured, and grammatically accurate. Basically, they broke down into archetypes.

Grizzled Old-School Husker Fan: Bah, what do those eggheads know about a game played on the field!

Snarky Hipster Husker Fan: Gee, can’t wait to watch that exciting half-a-loss Nebraska gets this year.

Angry Message Board Husker Fan: ESPN HAS ALWAYS HATED USSSSS!!!!!!11!!!!1!!

Husker Fan Pining For Previous Coach: It’s all because we fired Bo.

Husker Fan Pining For Previous Coach, Five Years Ago: It’s all because we fired Callahan.

Husker Fan Pining For Previous Coach, Ten Years Ago: It’s all because we fired Solich.

But the FPI results shouldn’t be a surprise. Here’s how ESPN describes the methodology for the FPI rankings.

The model comprises four major components: the last four seasons of performance on offense, defense and special teams, with the most recent season counting most; information on offensive and defensive returning starters, with special consideration given to a team returning its starting quarterback or gaining a transfer quarterback with experience; a four-year average recruiting ranking of four systems (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and Phil Steele); and head coaching tenure. These four components interact and are assigned different weights depending on the team to produce preseason FPI.

Combining all of the factors above produces a predicted value on offense, defense and special teams, which represents the number of points that each unit would be expected to contribute to the team’s scoring margin if it were to face an average FBS team on a neutral field.

Bill Connelly from SB Nation (and the robot from the incredibly entertaining Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody) released his 2017 S&P+ preseason ratings, which consider recruiting, returning production, and recent history. That formula has Nebraska at no. 42 nationally, behind Ohio State (no. 2), Penn State (no. 8), Wisconsin (no. 11), Oregon (no. 23), and Northwestern (no. 37).

So the computers hate Nebraska in 2017. Why?

Well, first of all, the Nebraska that takes the field in 2017 will bear almost no resemblance to the 2016 squad (which may either relieve you or terrify you, based on your perception of last year’s team).

Quarterback Tommy Armstrong, the undoubted engine of whatever offense Nebraska could produce last year? Gone, replaced either by a Tulane transfer with a career completion percentage of 53.6 percent and a 23/21 TD/INT ratio, or a redshirt freshman who has never taken a snap in a college game.

Wait, there’s more. Nebraska’s leading rusher? Gone. Leading receiver? Gone. Third leading receiver? Gone. Fourth leading receiver? Gone. Any tight end on the roster with a career catch? Gone.

Remember, analytics in general and the FPI in particular look at returning production to “decide” how good a team will be going forward. Nebraska, outside of receiver Stanley Morgan, has basically no returning production. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that the analytics don’t think much of Nebraska’s chances in 2017.

So take another look at Connelly’s S&P+ preseason rankings. They rank Nebraska no. 22 nationally in recruiting, no. 32 nationally in a five-year average (thank you, 2015), but no. 72 nationally in returning production. That explains, almost entirely, how Nebraska ends up in the mid-forties overall.

Does that mean Nebraska can’t be successful in 2017? Of course not. But it highlights the danger that could burst Husker Fans’ bubble of optimism – that we really don’t know what to expect from the guys wearing the scarlet and cream next year. Tanner Lee might tear things up next year and make Nebraska’s new passing attack thrive. But we don’t know, and we won’t know until the season plays out.

And the analytics are giving us a preview of what the national pundits will likely do as the season gets closer – show that Nebraska has lost the benefit of the doubt. Remember, Nebraska hasn’t won a conference title since 1999. Nebraska hasn’t been competitive in a conference title game since 2009, and needed a once-in-a-generation player like Ndamukong Suh to get that close.

If and when Nebraska gets back to the point where it can legitimately compete for conference titles, the national spotlight and the benefit of the doubt will be back, rest assured. Nebraska is still a legacy name, like Alabama was when it labored under the tutelage of Mike DuBose, Dennis Franchione, and Mike Shula before some guy named Saban showed up in Tuscaloosa.

But Nebraska ain’t Alabama, at least not yet. And until Nebraska can show it won’t wilt under the spotlight, don’t expect the national college football audience – or the analytics – to give Nebraska the benefit of the doubt.