On Tuesday, Nebraska’s new head coach Scott Frost signed his first recruiting class. With 24 signees, including five junior-college transfers, Nebraska’s 2018 class was rated no. 22 nationally and no. 4 in the B1G by 247 Sports. So what did we learn from Frost’s first full class for Nebraska?
A lot accomplished in a short time
Frost had his work cut out for him when he took the job on December 02, 2017. Much of the class assembled by former head coach Mike Riley was unraveling, and by late December Nebraska’s national recruiting ranking had dipped into the nineties nationally. Mix that in with Frost and his staff coaching Central Florida in the Peach Bowl, and that left Nebraska’s recruiting in a huge hole.
But Frost and his staff dug in and made remarkable progress. A top-25 class for Nebraska in a transition year would be impressive regardless, but to achieve that goal while also coaching Central Florida to a win over Auburn is nothing short of remarkable.
It’s fair to observe that some of Frost’s recruiting ability was drafting off his 13-0 season at Central Florida and the national attention he received from his work in Orlando. Going forward, his accomplishments at UCF will mean far less than what he is – or is not – able to do at Nebraska.
Of course, it’s also fair to observe that next year Frost and his staff won’t be recruiting for one team while preparing another team to compete in a bowl game. So this year will likely be an outlier in terms of the surrounding circumstances – but it’s hard not to come away being impressed with the recruiting haul Frost and his staff were able to bring back to Lincoln.
Success in recruiting hotbeds
In this year’s class, Nebraska got eight (!) recruits from Florida, three from California, two from Georgia, and two from Texas. Those are good places to make inroads, and it appears that Frost’s ties in the Sunshine State from his time at UCF are paying initial dividends.
Additionally, Nebraska is competing at a recruiting level against the level of competition it needs to be. One of the recruits Nebraska just missed on, Javonte Jean-Baptiste, looks like he was going to pick Nebraska over Ohio State were it not for a snowstorm that delayed his decision.
Obviously, Nebraska needs to win those battles at some point. But given how quickly Frost had to get his class up to speed, even being in the running at this point for a talent like that is an encouraging sign.
Recruiting at a championship level
Frost’s return to Nebraska has certainly re-energized the fanbase with visions of returning to old glories. Heck, even the Spring Game is now sold out, demonstrating how desperately hungry the fanbase is for a taste of success.
But Frost’s return also brings out the recruiting skeptics. You know, the ones who believe that all it takes is good coaching and determination to win big in modern college football.
That’s understandable, after Nebraska fans have felt burned by two coaches (Riley and Bill Callahan) who focused heavily on recruiting and did not deliver results on the field.
It’s at this point that I will remind you – again – that there’s no escaping the importance of recruiting. Jason Kirk from SB Nation produced one of the best explanations of why recruiting matters, regardless of the romanticism surrounding all the try-hards in college football. The TL;DR is that if a school doesn’t recruit at an elite level, it’s very difficult to win at an elite level. Here’s what Stuart Mandel had to say on Fox Sports (back when they did more than just video) about the link between recruiting and winning.
Power 5 teams (of which there are 65) that consistently recruit Top 20 classes have a 60 percent chance of becoming a Top 20 program and a 35 percent chance of regularly inhabiting the Top 10.
By contrast, Power 5 teams that finish outside the Top 20 in recruiting have a lower than 18 percent chance of fielding Top 20 teams and just a 6.7 percent chance of reaching the Top 10.
So, sure, you can win with a bunch of two- and three-stars, a lot of coaching, and a lot of pride. But you are far, far more likely to have sustained success if you can recruit at least within the top twenty nationwide.
Nebraska finished it’s 2018 class rated no. 22 nationally, and that’s with a short window and the additional responsibility of Peach Bowl coaching for UCF. If Frost can keep Nebraska at that level of recruiting, then the talent level should be present for Nebraska to compete for conference (and ultimately national) titles.
More importantly, let’s take a look at how Nebraska’s 2018 class stacks up to the rest of the B1G. Nebraska’s B1G West division-mates are listed in italics.
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As you can see, Nebraska has significantly out-recruited the rest of the B1G West. If that trend continues, that should give Nebraska a significant talent advantage over all of its divisional rivals.
Of course, talent advantages alone aren’t enough to win games. Nebraska has out-recruited Iowa for years, and has lost its last two games to the Hawkeyes by an aggregate score of 96-24.
Scheme matters. Coaching matters. Development matters. All of those things have been in short supply in Lincoln over the last few years.
But recruiting matters, too. With his first class, Frost has demonstrated he can recruit at Nebraska to the level that he would need to give the fans what they ache for – conference titles and national relevance.
2018 Super Six
(6) Jaron Woodyard (WR). Frost’s offense is built on speed, and no one in this class – and maybe on this roster – has the kind of speed Woodyard possesses. His ability to take the top off defenses changes how Nebraska can attack on offense.
(5) Cam’Ron Jones (S). Not only is he likely the best of a talented group of defensive backs, but Jones could very well get offensive Wildcat-like packages designed to get him on the field.
(4) Will Honas (ILB). Plug-and-play ready to be in the middle of the defense. It’ll be an upset if he’s not a starter when Nebraska plays Akron in September.
(3) Maurice Washington (IB). Nebraska hasn’t had a true home-run threat in the backfield since Ameer Abdullah. In Washington, that streak may have ended. Given the nature of the position, Washington has a great chance to see significant playing time as a freshman.
(2) Caleb Tannor (DE). Yeah, Washington is the flashy guy and he really could be a lot of fun to watch. But Nebraska desperately needs to find a pass rush, and that’s Tannor’s specialty. He and Martinez were the two had-to-get positions in this class.
(1) Adrian Martinez (QB). Sure, it’s the obvious choice. But the fact remains that Frost’s high-speed attack really needs a dual-threat quarterback, and Martinez has been Frost’s choice since he arrived in Lincoln. Don’t be shocked if he sees the field in 2018.