What to Expect: Indiana at Purdue
Indiana’s two-game road trip concludes Saturday night at Mackey Arena against Purdue. The Boilermakers are 21-2 overall, 10-2 in the Big Ten and have won seven straight games.
Saturday’s game will tip at 8 p.m. ET on FOX:
Indiana showed grit Tuesday night by erasing an 18-point second half deficit in a 76-73 win at Ohio State. It was a solid response after Saturday’s defensive debacle against Penn State that saw the Hoosiers surrender a double-figure lead three times and fall by 14 to the Nittany Lions at Assembly Hall.
But the Hoosiers now have their toughest test of the season on Saturday before a week-long break between games.
Purdue is a sure-fire No. 1 seed in next month’s NCAA tournament, the Big Ten regular season title favorite and one of the nation’s hottest teams. The Boilermakers are also looking to complete a season sweep of Indiana after easily defeating the Hoosiers 87-66 on Jan. 16 in Bloomington.
THE FIRST MATCHUP
It was a forgettable performance for Indiana in the first matchup between the two rival programs last month at Assembly Hall.
Outside of the start of the game, the Boilermakers thoroughly dominated the Hoosiers and led by as many as 24 before a final margin of 21. It was the biggest home margin of defeat to Purdue in program history.
The most glaring storyline from the first matchup was Mike Woodson’s decision to bench Kel’el Ware and Mackenzie Mgbako for so long in the first half with foul trouble.
Mgbako scored Indiana’s first seven points, but picked up two early fouls and was benched at the 15:30 mark and the Hoosiers trailing by three points. When he reentered the game at the 3:33 mark of the half, Indiana was down by 14.
It was a similar story with Ware, who left the game with Indiana trailing by two with 13:40 left in the first half. When IU’s 7-footer returned at the 2:14 mark, the deficit was 2:14.
Indiana, of course, struggled with containing national player of the year favorite Zach Edey, who had his way in the 36 minutes he spent on the floor. The 7-foot-4 center hung 33 points and 14 rebounds on the Hoosiers. Edey did shoot under 50 percent from the field (11-for-23) but was nearly perfect from the free throw line at 11-for-12.
The Boilermakers were able to use one of their biggest strengths – getting to the free throw line – as a significant advantage. Purdue took 18 more free throws than Indiana and outscored the Hoosiers by 18 points at the line.
The fact that Purdue won so easily without having a big night from beyond the 3-point line speaks to how complete and balanced the Boilermakers are as a team. Indiana took more 3s and made more 3s than Purdue, but it didn’t matter as the Boilermakers completely dominated the game.
Much of that resulted from Purdue setting the tone early with its aggressiveness and physicality.
“We got smacked the first half, and you’ve got to give them credit,” Woodson said after the loss. “I thought they were more tougher. Yeah, there were a lot of fouls called against us, but they set the tone.”
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
All stats in the graphic below are via KenPom.com and are for conference games only.
Purdue has the best offense in the country and it’s not just Edey’s dominance that powers the Boilermakers. Purdue is the third-best 3-point shooting team in the conference at 40.1 percent from distance in league games. Against Big Ten opponents, Lance Jones is making 38.2 percent, Fletcher Loyer is at 51.1 percent and Mason Gillis is connecting at a 46.2 percent clip.
Purdue really separates itself offensively with its ability to draw fouls and get to the line and on the glass. The Boilermakers have the Big Ten’s best free throw rate (FTA/FGA) at 43.1 percent and are second-best in the league at keeping their opponents off the line. Big Ten foes have a free throw rate of just 25.1 percent against Purdue. In conference games, Purdue is outscoring its opponents by 9.3 points per game from the line.
Purdue is also the league’s best rebounding team. The Boilermakers grab 39 percent of their missed shots and only allow their opponents to grab 24.9 percent of their misses.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Purdue by 19 with a 96 percent chance of a Boilermaker victory. After the Hoosiers swept the season series last year, Purdue will be looking to make a statement on Saturday night in front of a national audience in primetime.
For Indiana, its best players must avoid foul trouble and stay on the floor as much as possible. There’s a considerable dropoff when Woodson goes to the bench and extended minutes without Ware or Malik Reneau on the floor is not sustainable.
The Hoosiers also must take care of the ball and avoid careless mistakes against a Purdue team that doesn’t force many turnovers. As well as Purdue is playing and with the fuel the crowd at Mackey Arena provides, Indiana is fighting a major uphill battle.
Filed to: Purdue Boilermakers