What to Expect: Iowa at Indiana
Indiana will try to halt a three-game losing streak when it hosts Iowa on Tuesday at Assembly Hall. The Hawkeyes are 12-8 overall and 4-5 in Big Ten play.
The game will tip at 7 p.m. ET on BTN:
The Hoosiers were much improved on Saturday afternoon against Illinois at the State Farm Center, but the Illini scored the last eight points to win 70-62.
Indiana has 11 Big Ten games left and is only favored in one, according to KenPom.com. Up next is a meeting with Iowa, which has an identical 12-8 overall record and a 4-5 mark in conference games.
The Hawkeyes lost back-to-back home games to Purdue and Maryland before winning 88-78 at Michigan over the weekend.
MEET THE HAWKEYES
Now in its 14th season under Fran McCaffery, Iowa again has one of the better offenses with a below-average defense.
The Hawkeyes are a low-volume 3-point shooting team that shoots well from 2 (58th nationally) and the free-throw line (30th nationally).
With last season’s star Kris Murray now in the NBA with the Portland Trailblazers, Iowa is more by committee for its scoring. The Hawkeyes have four players averaging between 11.2 and 15.7 points per game.
Iowa is led in scoring by Valpo transfer Ben Krikke (15.7 ppg), a fifth-year lefty who is terrific at moving without the ball and finding his spots in the mid-range. Krikke is shooting 57.4 percent on 2s and is making 49.1 percent of his 2-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com. Despite standing 6-foot-9 and 245 pounds, Krikke isn’t much of a banger in the post.
The primary big man for McCaffery is freshman Owen Freeman, who had an IU scholarship offer out of high school. The 6-foot-10, 230-pound post player is the leading candidate for Big Ten freshman of the year as he’s racked up several Big Ten freshman of the week awards this season. Freeman is second on the team in rebounding at 6.2 per game and averages 11.2 points per game on 64.3 percent shooting.
The Hawkeyes start a three-guard set with Indianapolis native Tony Perkins, Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix.
The 6-foot-4 Perkins has the highest usage rate on the team and does a great job balancing between scoring (15.2 ppg) and distributing. Perkins is ninth in the Big Ten in assist rate and is very efficient on 2s, shooting 54 percent inside the arc in conference games. He’s also sixth in the league in steal percentage.
Sandfort is a threat who must always be marked on the perimeter. He’s made a team-high 55 3s (2.75 per game), connecting at a 39.3 percent clip overall and 41.8 percent in Big Ten games. No other Hawkeye has made more than 18 3s this season.
Dix, a 6-foot-5 sophomore, has started the last four games and made five 3s against Nebraska on Jan. 12. He’s 18-for-38 from deep on the season and 11-for-24 (45.8 percent) in league play.
Fifth-year senior Patrick McCaffery is back after an ankle injury kept him out of games against Minnesota and Purdue. The 6-foot-9 forward is just 13-for-49 on 3s this season and shoots 42 percent overall from the field.
Other bench names that could figure into Tuesday’s game include sophomore guard Dasonte Bowen, freshman big man Ladji Dembele and freshman guard Brock Harding.
Dembele is a 6-foot-8, 250-pound post player who has been inefficient in the post. He’s shooting only 41.7 percent on 2s.
The 6-foot-2 Bowen started the first eight games but has logged just 39 minutes over the last five games and played just six minutes in the win at Michigan.
Harding is a 6-foot point guard that should figure more into the rotation down the line. He had two double-figure scoring games back in non-conference play.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
All stats are via KenPom.com and we’re now using stats from Big Ten games only.
On paper, Iowa isn’t a particularly bad matchup for Indiana for two key reasons. The Hawkeyes are a worse rebounding team than the Hoosiers and don’t excel at getting to the line or keeping their opponents off the line.
Iowa ranks 14th in the Big Ten in defensive rebounding percentage and ninth in offensive rebounding percentage. It doesn’t take a ton of 3s, either, as just 24.9 percent of its points are coming from distance in Big Ten play. Only Indiana at 22.7 percent is lower.
The Hawkeyes are also the worst 2-point field goal percentage defense in the league. Big Ten opponents are shooting 57 percent on 2s and IU’s post-heavy offense will no doubt be looking to get the ball inside. Iowa will likely mix in some zone to keep the ball from getting into Malik Reneau.
Offensively, Iowa excels in transition and is very good with its off ball movement and passing. The Hawkeyes don’t turn it over and assist 60.5 percent of their field goals, which is the 20th best mark in the country. Iowa will pick on defenders who lose focus off the ball and make them pay.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Iowa by two with a 44 percent chance of an IU victory. Iowa is no stranger to finding success at Assembly Hall as the Hawkeyes won 90-68 last February in Bloomington.
The status of Kel’el Ware remains up in the air as Mike Woodson said Saturday that the Hoosiers would try to get him back on the court Sunday.
The keys for Indiana are pounding the ball inside, keeping Iowa out of transition as much as possible, avoiding another catastrophic performance from the free throw line and keeping track of Sandfort on the perimeter.
Filed to: Iowa Hawkeyes